Turn Out the Lights, The Party's Over

Just learned through watching TSN Canada at work, that the Predators are about to be sold to Jim Balsillie - the same Canadian billionaire who almost had the winning bid for the Penguins back in January.

Watching the playoffs, you could tell something was up with the franchise. Although the rumors got as far as the Canadian answer to ESPN (because ESPN USA can't be bothered with hockey beyond Barry Melrose on Thursdays) they were unsettling enough to start believing something was going down in the off-season.

It's a pity that the Preds had to win a division title, 50+ games, then flame out in the first round again for all this to come to the surface, but I know I'm not alone in saying that I was really uncomfortable having a hockey team in the home of country music. They were originally on my hit list during the cancelled season, one of four teams that I thought should be contracted to get the lague back on track. Now, with Balsillie's letter of intent, which is more ironclad than that Pittsburgh one, Nashville will most likely not be in Nashville after next season.

Of course, as it stands now, nobody knows what Jim Balsillie will do. But let's recount the journey he's taken just since the turn of the New Year: Stepping up to purchase a struggling Penguins team on the verge of moving - all the while suggesting that the right thing to do with his purchase was to find a more economically viable location. Hamilton, Ontario was floated as his primary choice, followed by Winnipeg, Quebec, Hartford and Houston. Now, he steps up to sign a letter of intent - with prior ownership's backing - to purchase the Predators franchise which has been hemorrhaging money as an expansion team for years, and these two first-round failures put extra pressure on the business operation.

Since Balsillie would automatically be worth more money than virtually all other NHL team owners, he'd want to use that financial power to exercise some influence to move the club somewhere else. Because the NHL is already trying to monkey around with the schedule system and the division alignment following next season, I'd expect a relocation to pass with little opposition. Also, the fact that he's taking over one of the so-called "small market" teams will give him certain additional leverage with the Commissioner, whose job it has been to balance things more financially between market sizes.

Thus, Balsille can shift from the public perception of a younger Monty Burns trying to steal away a team from the hearts of the dedicated, to an unwitting hero about to rescue the NHL from its shaky experiment in the Southern reaches of the United States.

Don't get me wrong - I thought it a great gesture on Paul Kariya's part to place his newfound faith in the NHL and bring his leadership to the Preds two summers ago. I also thought it a great shot in the arm that David Legwand chose to and Tomas Vokoun both chose to stay after starting their careers with the then-expansion team, and that J.P. Dumont and Jason Arnott saw the Predators as a team with which to grow. However, it hasn't been a revelation that Nashville has been losing money while not garnering the support of butts in seats which it has required.

Recall the promise in 2003, that if the Preds didn't make the playoffs, season ticket holders would get a drastic reduction for the following season. If anything, it hastened Steve Sullivan's arrival in town, which had a direct effect on that season's successful capture of a playoff berth. It's also natural to expect a deep playoff run in subsequent seasons which will fill the crater of operating a team with the extra revenue of additional playoff home games; this didn't happen as the Preds were bounced in the opening round by the Sharks the last two years, with only six postseason home dates.

If playoff flameouts by division winners has been the downfall in established markets (like the downturn the Flyers suffered through in the early 1980's), think of the repercussions in a market which never got the support in the first place. This is where Balsillie can become a conquering hero.

True, his first choice of Hamilton would further split the 100-mile area between Toronto and Buffalo with a third team, but since the region has almost a million people (plus a long-time AHL fan base), it just might work after an upgrade to Copps Coliseum. In Winnipeg, a new arena awaits, and in Connecticut, two million fans wait with bated breath for the NHL's return. After the slow leak of money out of the Music City, even a billionaire with vast resources can see that pouring money into someplace where you won't get it back isn't a wise choice, even if you can recover those losses somewhere else.

I would venture to say, that unlike Florida and North Carolina, hockey in Nashville won't really be missed - and it has little to do with the Appalachian/Southern stereotypes of NASCAR-lovers and such. The region has an entrenched baseball, football and basketball history which remains strong, and unlike Kansas City or Atlanta, wouldn't be ridiculed for its failure given enough time to analyze.

I would also say that because of the cracks now appearing in the finances and fan base of certain Southern teams, it's time for people in the colder climates to get moving. It's not enough just to stand pat and say you deserve a team because of rich hockey heritage; you've got to get the people behind it, push through the funds, build the arena, and get fan interest into a frenzy. The NHL is still a business; you have to put together a fancy pitch which will make it impossible for the league to deny your city when faced with a better pure business opportunity somewhere else.

A man with billions of dollars and a pipe dream to move an existing club to your town only comes along once in a blue moon.