Saturday, May 26, 2007

Stanley Cup Finals Preview

Ottawa and Anaheim clash for the Stanley Cup beginning tonight, a seven-game, 15-day odyssey which will see one of these teams win the first title in franchise history.

No Canadian team has hoisted the Cup since Montreal's 5-game triumph over Los Angeles back in 1993, and only three Canadian teams since then have competed in the Finals (Vancouver - 1994; Calgary 2004; Edmonton 2006) since then.

Although the Senators now consider their original team which disbanded in 1935 as part of this current regime, the NHL considers this Ottawa franchise separate due to the intervening 57 year gap. Captain Daniel Alfredsson's hard work and perseverance may finally pay off, as he is the longest-serving Senator, having played in every Ottawa postseason game since their first appearance in 1997. The key to success for the Sens is a successful transition game, constant pressure in all three zones, and the ability of more than one line to score. Sixteen different players have scored, yet the point totals are overwhelmingly in favor of the top line of Heatley-Alfredsson-Spezza (58 of 128 total points). The other three lines must assert themselves more, and find bigger roles than just supporting players. Of course, goaltender Ray Emery has to keep on keepin' on, a mobile, agile and hostile kung-fu genius totally ensconced in his own head.

On the other hand, the Ducks get their second crack in team history to bring home the Cup. No team from California has won, and only the Kings in 1993 played for the trophy, in league annals. Anaheim lost a well-played and heatbreaking seven-game set to the Devils in 2003 - a fact not lost on Anaheim goaltender Jean-Sebastein Giguere who upstaged Martin Brodeur to take home Conn Smythe Trophy honors as playoff MVP. He is one of only two players left from that club, bolstered by multiple-Cup-winner Scott Niedermayer, and last year's runner-up Chris Pronger on defense. Veteran goal-machine Teemu Selanne now gets his shot to win, and let's hope he doesn't float like he did for most of the Detroit series. There should be no concern over losing Chris Kunitz to his broken hand - Travis Moen and Sami Pahlsson have stepped up to provide extra offensive punch in a way Mike Comrie and Oleg Saprykin need to for Ottawa.

I don't see one team imposing their will on the other for more than a few minute-stretches of each game. Barring injury or excessively undisciplined play, it should be a long and exciting series. If both teams can keep the miscues to a minimum, it will reduce stress on the defense and goaltending, and since both teams are both fearless and physically imposing, you might see a lot of open ice in 4-on-4 situations.

That said, I give the edge to the Senators offensively, and to the Ducks on the back end. The goaltending is a push, though Giguere has the added badge of having been here before and carried his club. Power-play goes to the Senators, and even strength to the Ducks, who can play any style which game flow dictates. Intangibles go to Ottawa, which is now dedicating their Finals run to the little three-year-old fan and recent cancer victim who adopted the team as his own.

Prediction: Man, is this one painful to figure out. By another coin flip, it's Anaheim in seven.

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