Monday, January 29, 2007

Northwest Division

Vancouver - Defense and goaltending are a total wash in the hypercompetitive Northwest, where seven points separate first and last place. If Markus Naslund has been purposely holding out until the run for the playoffs, he better start weaving some magic because there's no consolation for losing games 2-1 and 3-2 and hoping Roberto Luongo has some 40-save nights to keep the Canucks in the postseason picture. I knew losing Todd Bertuzzi would be a huge blow to their offensive flow and goals-per-game, but who knew how much Anson Carter contributed last year would be missed so much, too? Unless the Sedin family has a cloning device, the Canucks will be on shaky ground. Robert Luongo has been everything advertised (28-16-2, 2.36, 3 ShO) and it's not likely he'll fold up down the stretch. If anything, the fusillade of shots he faced all th ose years with the Islanders and Panthers will steel his resolve now that he's backstopping a contender. Right now, they're a 3-seed, but only four points out of the last playoff spot. At the very least, if Vancouver plays as they have been they won't miss the postseason, but they'd be advised to step it up in all aspects of the game to ensure a spot.

Calgary - 151 goals in 49 games, fifth most in the Western Conference. Maybe Duane Sutter and Jim Playfair got the message after all these years? You have to question how the Flames will hold up the longer Jarome Iginla is out of the lineup., though. He's been the team's catalyst for the last six seasons. Like Vancouver, the Flames are hanging by a thread with little margin for error - currently one point behind the Canucks in the Northwest, but all the way down at a seven-seed. They'll need to win a ton of tough division games just to stay afloat, and I'm not sure they won't be edged out by Colorado and Edmonton, despite Miikka Kiprusoff's acrobatics in net. Eastern Conference teams beware - if a scheduling change ever goes into effect where there's more interconference play, you'll come face-to-face with the chaos and mayhem that is Dion Phaneuf. He's an explosive presence on defense, and every bit a catalyst that Iginla is on both ends of the rink. How he handles his duties under the pressure of a playoff race is every bit as important as Iginla or Kiprusoff's roles. The Flames will have some very interesting games over their last 33.

Minnesota - Will be fighting tooth and nail (pun intended) with the rest of the division. The fact that they are in third right now with 51 points is attributable to the extra games they have played, and that will hurt them a bit in the division and playoff races. Miraculously, Minnesota has scored 140 goals, but it still seems like they're the old, boring trap team because they've played an inordinate amount of overtime and shootout rounds. A 19th-ranked power play does not help much, and is all that much more confusing given the amount of firepower the club has even when certain players are out of the lineup. The Wild are a team that must come to grips with the fact that playoff games don't go to shootouts, and that you better learn how to play 65 minutes of hockey first - something Dallas didn't understand last year before they were bounced in the first round. The broken record will be played again - unless Minnesota can score, there's only so far they can reach.

Colorado - OK, so it's not about contending anymore. Still, the Avalanche play so cohesively one game, then play like they're chasing an unwoven ball of string the next that it's maddening to watch. However, it won't take long for the kids to grow comfortable in their roles. Currently ninth-seed in the West, again, it will come down to the young players' maturity whether or not Colorado can sneak into a playoff spot. It sure won't be because of the goaltending situation, because Jose Theodore is proving how much of a fluke 2002 and 2004 was, while Peter Budaj is locked into the role of being a revelation when the pressure's off, but being nothing more than a solid backup otherwise. It's always murky when you start talking trades, but I can't imagine that Colorado would be either buyers or sellers, because they've invested so much in putting the younger players up front into big roles that altering the chemistry for the sake of one or two rent-a-players might be damaging to their collective psyche. Still, there's always a chance as long as Quiet Joe remains the consummate leader both on and off the ice.

Edmonton - There's a lot of hand-wringing and false expectations over Edmonton's struggles this year, but it's all nonsense, especially when you lose one of the most dominating defensive forces in the game. Remember, the Oilers were an eight-seed when they made the finals, just the luckiest of all the clubs vying for that last playoff spot. This year, they play in THE most competitive division in hockey, and, well...someone's gotta be left out. Ten, 20 years ago you might say that their championship pedigree would kick in and raise them from last place, but who can really tell? Their whole season hinges on some key breakdowns - they wouldn't have gotten a point if it weren't for Patrik Stefan's empty-net gaffe, and both Roloson and Markkanen came up small in a recent 7-6 home loss to Colorado. These things can't continue to happen if the Oilers expect to make the postseason, but 2006-2007 will not be a horrid failure if they don't. However, certain rumors paint St. Louis in sell mode, and the hot topic of discussion is Doug Weight's return to the prairie. Even hypothetically speaking, he alone could make a huge difference in Edmonton's chances. At this stage, I equate the Oilers to the 1997-98 Flyers, whose year after their Finals appearance was torn apart by the Chris Gratton deal which cost them two solid players. They are the most-likely team to be odd-man-out come late March and April.

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