Monday, January 22, 2007

Northeast Division

Buffalo - At the break, all of a sudden there is so much talk and hand-wringing in columns about the struggles the Sabres have had in the last two weeks. As if the already cold, gray, low hanging Niagara Region sky would suddenly come crashing down through the HSBC Arena roof because Buffalo took until now to go through a rough patch. So Nashville overtook them for first overall - so what? This week of rest is exactly what Buffalo needs to get back on track. 33-12-4, a league-leading 185 goals for, second overall in the NHL, and a #1 playoff seed is nothing to worry about. However, a 2.82 team goals against average, a power play ranked in the bottom third of the league, and a pair of goaltenders who have been solid but unspectacular are things to cause some concern. Nonetheless, if Buffalo somehow plays .500 hockey from here on out, they'd still be looking at a 50-win season and first place in the Northeast, assured of either a #1 or #2 seed and two rounds with home-ice advantage. This is their time to seize the moment, with free agency ready to tear the fabric of the club apart come July 1st.

Montreal - Nobody's sleeper pick in the division, but I can take some pride in calling it right that the Canadiens would trump the new-look Leafs. Nearly everyone on the team has performed at or above expectations, but is that a function of a relatively healthy team, or the upturn the franchise took because of Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau at the controls, or a little of both? Whatever it is, it's working like a charm, and the Habs have taken good advantage of Buffalo's downturn, Toronto's injuries and Ottawa's struggles to earn 2nd place and a 4 seed. Their schedule is not division heavy down the stretch, with plenty of games with the ripe-for-the-plucking Senators and the inconsistent Bruins. Look for this team to continue it's ride on the crest of their icy wave and stay in the middle of the playoff pack.

Ottawa - Smoke and mirrors and a hell of a lot of goals at key times are the only things keeping the Senators afloat. They lost an incalculable amount of points when Martin Havlat departed for Chicago, and an invaluable punishing force in Zdeno Chara to Boston. You can't blame Wade Redden for not holding up his end of the bargain with injuries, because it could have happened the other way around if Chara had stayed and Redden gone to Boston or Philly. I'm not sure that Ottawa can hang tough and grit out some 3-2, 4-3 wins in the final 32 games to keep their five-seed standing. It's more likely the tap will be stuck on deluge for a precious few games and then plugged up for far too many. No blame should rest on Martin Gerber or Ray Emery, who are basically a pair of backups doing the best they can for doddering old man Muckler. If Mike Comrie is as much of a whiner as some people paint him to be, he may be the first card to crumble and bring the whole flimsy house down in Canada's capital. Ottawa will make the playoffs, but they may have to beat several teams off in the process.

Toronto - There's a curse going around the Hockey Capital of the Universe, in that a good Leafs team on paper is always felled by major injuries, infighting, incessant media pressure, and an overload of veterans acquired at the trading deadline, ad nauseam. The fact that Toronto is tied with the Rangers and Penguins for 8th spot in the East is a testament to how much good talent is on the ice when everyone is healthy. I really hate to say it, but Darcy Tucker's sudden offensive prowess and usual scowl are the Leafs' trump card in the fight for the postseason. If he can continue to intimidate with his checking and provide some clutch goals, the last month of the season will get very interesting in Hogtown. That is, if Andrew Raycroft can avoid a mental meltdown after admitting the boos cascading from the Air Canada Centre rafters get to him. Jean-Sebastien Aubin's achilles heel has always been that he can't carry a full load - he was (and is) always best used in a sparing save-the-day backup role. Their margin for error is razor thin, but Paul Maurice endured some tough years with Hartford/Carolina, and he will do everything he can to keep equilibrium no matter what happens. This team may be well adjusted for a long run next season, but this year is a crapshoot.

Boston - Well, physically, the B's sit in the Northeast Division basement - like a lot of people, including myself, pictured them. However, nobody knew just how competitive the division would be, with the myriad trades and injuries and unexpected performances pretty much levelling every other team except Buffalo. Are they playoff contenders? Nope. However, the fact that the Bruins are just two points from eighth place will fool a lot of people into thinking the club has a shot. Good thing the 3,000 or so fans disguised as empty seats each game in the New Garden aren't fooled. The Joe Thornton trade gutted this team and set them back three years, so expectations were already lowered coming into this season Chara signing notwithstanding, and the fact that the Bruins are in 11th place is nothing more than false dawn. The Bruins are eternally also-rans because of their goaltending situation - Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen have already hit the ceiling in terms of talent, but how much further can they go with hard work? A free agent signing is in order. All that said, Dave Lewis' club may be the linchpin to the Eastern playoff picture, because they can rip off a couple key wins just for pride and as the spoiler, even if their ultimate destiny is a last-place finish.

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