Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Northwest Passages

Calgary - The Flames have done much to improve their situation, the smartest move of all being the removal of Darryl Sutter from behind the bench. Seriously, Calgary was one of the teams that just refused to buy into the New NHL, and paid for it dearly with a first round flame-out against Anaheim.
There must be something in the cool, crisp, clean Calgary water when it comes to dealing with the Avalanche. First, they steal Chris Drury. Now, they've fleeced the 'Lanche by taking Alex Tanguay who should now be hitting his prime, for a middling defenseman in Jordan Leopold. Along with Tony Amonte, Kristian Huselius, Chuck Kobasew, and Jarome Iginla, the top two lines are forces to be reckoned with. On defense, Dion Phaneuf, a Calder Trophy candidate, shouldn't suffer a sophomore slump, even though his numbers may dip a bit. He'll be the brightest star on a defense that is solid but unspectacular. In net, Miikka Kiprusoff and Jamie McLennan will steal a couple games when the offense stalls.
With a revamped frontline, and new coaching philosophy from Jim Playfair, there should be no excuses for why the Flames can't score in excess of 240 goals this year, even in an ultra-competitive division. It remains to be seen just how much influence Sutter wields from the front office, and if he suggests more backchecking and physical presence, the Flames will be stuck in the same old rut. Prediction: 2nd place.

Colorado - Finally, fans in the Denver Metro area will get a dose of what every other hockey market has seen - a team in the early stages of a rebuilding process. ESPN, Yahoo, and the Denver Post are all treating the Avalanche's youth movement like the fall of the Roman Empire. It's hard to remember that, even before the arrival of Patrick Roy, the Nordiques moved to Colorado in 1995 with a team ready-made for stardom, and maintained a level of excellence far longer than most teams in this hyper-expansion era.
Joe Sakic is the lone remaining player from both Cup seasons, and he'll have his toughest assignment ever, being the face of the franchise, and the only dependable veteran leader and scorer. Steve Konowalchuk would have filled a leadership void, but with his unexpected retirement, it is a huge blow to the team's character. The rest are question marks: Can Andrew Brunette come close to his career year? Which Milan Hejduk will show up this season? Are Marek Svatos, Wojtek Wolski, and Paul Stastny the equivalents to the young Sakic, Sundin, and Nolan? The backline is a mixed bag at best, and significantly weaker without the presence of Rob Blake. John-Michael Liles will have a steep learning curve without his veteran mentor, and you've got to figure some late-season fatigue with the ageless Ken Klee and unreliable Patrice Brisebois. Jose Theodore and Peter Budaj are wild cards - they'll most likely cost the Avs as many games as they'll steal.
This is the first year of what could be a long climb back to prominence. Colorado won't disappear like a feather in the wind, but they aren't nearly as dangerous as even last season. Prediction: 3rd place, 38-40 wins.

Edmonton - Your 15 minutes of fame are up. I know there is a contingent of fans, analysts and broadcasters who are wishing for a return to the glory days in the wake of Edmonton's surprise run to Game 7 of the Finals, but the window of opportunity dried up when that clock hit all zeros in the RBC Center in June.
Even if Chris Pronger's wife had liked the frigid tundra of northern Alberta to let her husband stay, teams like the Oilers who make runs one year become also-rans the next. With no Pronger, no Samsonov, no Radek Dvorak, who's going to provide the speed and spark? Hopefully, Joffrey Lupul who came in the Pronger deal. Other than that, it's basically the same team from last year. The Oilers should be an exciting regular season team, playing 41 games on that beautifully fast ice surface, but they'll take a huge step backwards in the postseason. Prediction: 4th place

Minnesota - The sexy pick on everyone's list to challenge the rest of the Northwest for the division title. They have Marian Gaborik, Brian Rolston, and new acquisitions Pavol Demitra and Mark Parrish, plus two Flyer castoffs in Branko Radivojevic and Kim Johnsson.
But really, that's all. Martin Skoula and Keith Carney on defense? Manny Fernandez has no proven back-up in the crease, either.
I guess Jacques Lemaire has a plan to try to outscore the opposition instead of lulling them into a trap-induced coma. Sometimes I wonder if he even remembers the years he spent as one of the era-defining Flying Frenchmen in Montreal. This team isn't going anywhere unless Lemaire removes the shackles for good...This is a recording... This message will self-destruct in 8 seconds...
Prediction: 5th place. I'd bet everything I own that Minnesota won't score more than 220 goals and won't give up more than 210.

Vancouver - While the Flames pulled off the best move of the off-season within the division, the Canucks pulled off the gutsiest. Trading their behemoth power forward Todd Bertuzzi to Florida in a deal that brought them their best goaltender since Kirk McLean, in Roberto Luongo. Bertuzzi's psychological wounds will heal in the South Beach sun, and Luongo will play well even if he's not facing 45 shots a night.
The biggest losses for Vancouver occurred on defense, where Brent Sopel left for Los Angeles and Ed Jovanovski fled for Phoenix. Still, Sami Salo and Mattias Ohlund are more than prepared to carry the load, along with Willie Mitchell who is a suitable Jovo substitute. Up front, the subtraction of Bertuzzi means less room for Markus Naslund and friends to roam around the net, however, the forwards are skilled enough to create room for themselves with their skill (Naslund, Morrison, Jan Bulis) and chemistry (Sedin twins). The x-factor in how the Canucks fare will be this new lawsuit brought against Trevor Linden and the player's union rep Ted Saskin.
As if Vancouver didn't already have enough on their plate with the lingering Bertuzzi-Moore situation, and breaking in a new head coach, one of the city's most beloved players will be embroiled in this lawsuit drama as long as it lasts. All the more reason to make them my sleeper pick. Prediction: First place, edging out Calgary.

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