Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Northeast Direct

Boston - Year after year, whether it's a small amount of tinkering or a series of moves that blow out half a roster, the Bruins organization has always touted itself as one that can put competitive teams on the ice for a budget. Three decades into the reign of error that marks Jeremy Jacobs' imprint on the B's, and the team is in danger of becoming a perennial cellar dweller.
There's no question now that the three-for-one Joe Thornton trade set the Bruins back at least four years. That deal robbed the city of its only marketable icon, and robbed the on-ice product of its greatest hope. True, the number three overall pick from 1997 was never going to be an Orr, Esposito, Bourque, or even Oates, but for whatever he was, his presence on Causeway Street was the lynchpin that held the team together. Leaving a core of Glen Murray, Patrice Bergeron, Mark Mowers, and Marco Sturm to carry the offense is not much to build upon. Adding Marc Savard as a free agent is a big step forward, but he's nowhere close to providing the assists and creating the space Thornton did. Young bucks Phil Kessel and Brad Boyes, Paul Mara and Yan Stastny possess nothing more than tremendous potential, which is a shaky thing when your learning curve comes in a tough division and conference. Grabbing Zdeno Chara from Ottawa
improves the defense, though I'm not quite sure how he's going to be more than a Hal Gill surrogate with more scoring punch. I'm also uncertain how putting the "C" on his jersey will impact the leadership void that existed after late November last season. With the departure of Andrew Raycroft to Toronto, you're left with the equally enigmatic Hannu Toivonen and Tim Thomas in the crease. The Bruins won't be near the bottom of the league in goals against, but they won't be tough enough to pull close enough to even be in the race for the postseason.
Prediction: Last place, but that's no shame in the always tough Northeast.

Buffalo - The "Goat Lord Logo" is Gone! The "Goat Splash Logo" is here! It's a new day for the city on the Niagara!
The Sabres are another sexy pick to reach the Cup finals from the Eastern Conference, and I'm close to being convinced they have a legitimate shot to make the push through this year. Other than having to ditch J.P. Dumont and trade Taylor Pyatt due to salary cap issues, Buffalo's roster is untouched - which is fantastic for team chemistry. Head Coach Lindy Ruff is approaching Master Motivator status, and he will use the lessons learned from last year's surprise second-place finish to crack the whip this year. Even if the tandem of Martin Biron and Ryan Miller don't turn in an equally stellar performance this time around, they are still the best one-two punch in goal in the entire conference. Ruff would do well to create a starter-backup system that's about a 55-45 split to maximize both men's potential.
The Senators proved to be the only barrier to Buffalo in 05-06. Not so this year. Prediction: First place, second playoff seed.

Montreal - The Canadiens had their first round series against Carolina well in hand, up 2-0 coming back home with a chance to sweep. Then, they flat out stopped scoring, dropped four straight, and went home early while Carolina won the Cup.
The script has been the same for the Habs every year since 1994 - doing enough to get to the postseason, but not doing enough to push through to the next round. Every season Montreal has won a playoff round since 1993, hot goaltending was the sole factor in their advance. There's no reason to think it won't be the case again this year. That's a very sad fact of life for the most dominant franchise in NHL history, that over-expansion has watered down rosters to the point that even the mighty Habs are constantly on the bubble. Mike Ribeiro and Richard Zednik are gone, replaced by Sergei Samsonov and Mike Johnson. The defense has improved offensively, now that Janne Niinimaa will join Sheldon Souray as guns from the point on the power play. Everything else is in place from the end of last season. You can expect a solid but unspectacular season from Alex Kovalev, yeoman's work and at least 20 games lost to injury from Saku Koivu, and veiled threats leveled at the head of the vicious Alexander Perezhogin. David Aebischer should feel as comfortable as he's going to be wearing the bleu, blanc et rouge and being the anointed next link in the Roy-Theodore goalie-savior chain.
It's another year when the Montrealers will be on the edge of their seats, wishing, hoping, praying the Canadiens will squeak into the postseason. Prediction: 4th place, no playoffs, but a .500 record.

Ottawa - Nobody in the 30-team NHL can duplicate a 52-win, 113-point, 300+goal season. However, the Sens seem to have no problem doing the above, then confounding expectations by turning soft in the playoffs.
Ottawa won't be winning many 8-1 games this season, and they may not be winning many one-or-two goal games this year, either. Losing your spiritual leader on defense to a division rival, and keeping two less-than-stellar goaltenders will do that. As long as Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza are healthy, they will put up numbers, make the game exciting, and carry the Sens to quite a few wins this year. However, with the loss of Bryan Smolinski, the second line has a HUGE hole in production potential. Dean McAmmond is more of an interchangeable part than bona-fide threat or replacement. The departures of Chara to Boston and Vaclav Varada to Europe will be devastating to a defensive corps that at one time could steamroll forwards and shoot the puck with deadly precision. Like Akeem Olajuwon without Ralph Sampson, Wade Redden without Chara will be a lonely Tower struggling to stay upright against the offensive rush. Ottawa will have a surprising amount of toughness, with Denis Hamel, Brian McGrattan, Chris Neil and Christoph Schubert - but that only means more games will be knock-down, drag-out struggles than last year's routine goal splurges.
Expect at least a 40-goal drop on offense, but expect ScotiaBank Place to be a rougher place to play this year. Knowing what it is to leave everything on the ice in the regular season may be the final piece to the puzzle of advancing in the East. Prediction: 2nd place, 42-45 wins.

Toronto - Fans in Toronto should be cautiously humming The Who's "Won't Get Fooled Again" quietly to themselves as they pack the Air Canada Centre. Meet the new boss! Same as the old boss?
Paul Maurice has been given a blank check and blank slate to remake the Leafs in his image. Gone are the Pat Quinn years of flashy offense bolstered by the Domi-Tucker riot act. Here, is the preacher of defensive responsibility locked inside a framework that makes the game fun for the kids. Also gone are Ed "The Billion Dollar Man" Belfour and Eric "This Space For Rent" Lindros. What's on the ice is a mixed bag. Mats Sundin, Darcy Tucker, Michael Peca, Bryan McCabe and Jeff O'Neill will do exactly what we've come to expect. Stajan, Steen, Wellwood, and Ponikarovsky are the young fulcrum around which the Leafs will turn. How they fare individually and as a group will determine how well Toronto does in the 72-game Eastern gauntlet. Wade Belak and Hal Gill won't be skating, they'll look like they're playing defense on stilts. Jean-Sebastien Aubin and Andrew Raycroft will play net like Angels one week, and like Demons the next. Either Toronto will go through the season never winning or losing more than 3 or 4 in a row, or they'll be winning 10 and losing 10 at various points.
I give the edge to Toronto over Montreal, because the Leafs have more veterans capable of better production and leadership than the Habs. Prediction: 3rd place, just above Montreal, maybe an 8th seed.

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