Sunday, January 21, 2007

Mid-Season Review

For the first time since February, 2004, the NHL pauses for an All-Star Game. Also, for the first time since January, 1999, the game will be played in the first month of the new year, and for the first time since 1989, it will happen in the middle of the week rather than on a Saturday or Sunday. The Hockey Stop does not condone any of the above choices by the NHL, most notably its failure to give Atlanta the game this season after it was left in the cold due to the 2004-2005 lockout. NBC is still struggling to find an American audience, and putting the game on a weekday evening on an obscure cable channel instead of a weekend day for the network to celebrate the game like it should be is another in a long line of killer mistakes.

In any case, this is a perfect time to review where each of the 30 teams sit during this six-day break from game action. As in my preseason previews, the analysis will be limited to one division a day, this time starting with the Atlantic and progressing Westward.

New Jersey -
As usual, they have clawed to the top of the division squeezing every mother-loving point from every game from the first of December until now. I know the team has no qualms about letting its success depend almost solely on Martin Brodeur's shoulders, but what does he really think? Does it ever occur to him to suggest, even for once, that the team use more of its speed and skill to win games by more than one or two goals? Furthermore, why hasn't any other team in the league figured out how to break the spell the Devils have cast over the league for 11 years? Whatever - as usual the formula is working, and proves that it's not how you start that matters, it's that you get hot at the right time and stay consistent for a long stretch to stay at the top. Jersey has an incredible 13 point lead over Pittsburgh and the Rangers right now, and hold the #2 playoff seed. Their goal differential (+15) and record (10 games above .500) don't mesh, but if Gionta, Elias, Gomez and Brodeur are firing on all cylinders, there's no reason not to think the Devils can't stay atop the division, especially since the Rangers, Penguins, and Islanders all have major weaknesses that can be exploited in a late-season push.

Pittsburgh - Let's not even talk about all the moving and arena rumors and whatnot. It's the kids who are going to make or break this team, and the fact that the Penguins are in a second-place tie at the break is more a testament to the skill of Crosby, Malkin, Staal and the rest than the relative weakness of the division. Nonetheless, even when you give the kids the keys to the kingdom, they still have a steep learning curve, and all the Recchis and Gonchars in the world can't stop the inevitable fall when playoff spots are on the line. Pittsburgh's rise in the last two years is analogous to Mario Lemieux's first two seasons in the NHL, where the Pens went from 51 points and a sixth place finish in 1984-85 to as high as fourth place and a playoff spot in February 1986 only to collapse down the stretch and finish fifth. Given the right circumstances, this team is still one year away from serious playoff contention, but they have so much to build on, plus they are just a flat out fun team to watch on TV or in person. I'm sure if Marc-Andre Fleury could play the Flyers 40 times he'd win 40 games a season, but he needs to find more consistency in order to become a success. He was barely tested in last night's 8-2 win against Toronto because the Leafs were done halfway into the game, and will have to win some harrowing 3-2 or 5-4 games on the road for anyone to take him seriously as a great goaltender.

NY Rangers - Apparently, Shanahan can't do it all. All he's done this season is score 24 goals (12 PP), 46 points, half a dozen fights, and try to give New York a sense of purpose and heart on the ice. And still, it's not enough. The Enigma himself would waste plenty of hours trying to parse this club. Jagr and Straka keep putting up their mounds of points, but there's something missing without the services of Martin Rucinsky (St. Louis) and Petr Prucha wandering around in a daze most nights. The defense, even with the addition of the gritty, multi-Cup winning Aaron Ward, is porous, and worse, lacks teeth. Darius Kasparaitis, formerly Public Enemy #1, is a shadow of his former self, and even the shadow is limping around with a groin problem. How this team is alternately able to skate stride for stride with Buffalo and Atlanta, then let the Islanders and Senators open up leads of 4-0 and 5-0 at the Garden is a total mystery. Henrik Ludqvist and Kevin Weekes haven't made many mistakes in goal, but their combined performances just don't cut it. Even though they are not at fault for New York's multiple defensive breakdowns and lack of backchecking, neither has made many key saves to erase those mistakes. Keep in mind, though, that even Pelle Lindbergh struggled through his second NHL season before a spectacular third. If all the Blueshirts do is perform no worse than they have thus far (9th seed, tied with Pittsburgh and Toronto) they will make the postseason and cause some problems as a low seed in the East because they have the veteran edge over the Pens and the health factor over the Leafs. If anything, Shanny was made for the postseason.

NY Islanders - Seriously, this team should be so much worse off than it is. They're the late 80's-early 90's version of the Hartford Whalers, forever propped up by the woeful Quebec Nordiques, given a false shot of confidence because they should be the worst team in the division. Not to totally dis Ted Nolan, who has done a good job behind the bench so far, but where would the Isles be if not for the Flyers (2 road wins) and Rangers (4-0, two wins at MSG) playing so awfully against them? As soon as the Devils and Rangers start beating on each other, the Islanders, and the rest of the East for postseason berths, the Isles will bear the brunt of it, despite a nice balance of young and old. Mike Sillinger, Chris Simon and Brendan Witt have all been pleasant surprises, but the top half of the scoring list (with the exception of Jason Blake) reads like a list of old soldiers on their last rest stop before retirement. Mike Dunham and Rick DiPietro haven't turned any miracles in goal, nor will they down the stretch. Maybe Garth Snow can use his old Hockey East connections to work a couple deals to bolster the roster for next season, because the remainder of this year will offer nothing but empty promises and curses over what could have been. Islanders fans should just enjoy the ride, and lust after a couple more wins over the Rangers.


Philadelphia - The only silver lining in this whole ordeal is that the entire organization will have to be rethought, top to bottom. Ed Snider and Paul Holmgren ave hinted very strongly that this offseason will be one where money will be leaving the Wachovia Center coffers like a blizzard. That's OK to build some fan confidence, but the act of simply spending money to get good is just as counterproductive as, oh...say...revamping your roster in the space of two seasons from an entirely veteran club to one almost exclusively young. That said, there are only five players on this current squad who have been consistent the whole season - Gagne, Forsberg, Knuble, Sanderson and Niittymaki. Unfortunately, three of the five have been hit by injury, leaving the other two to frantically hold up the proverbial tent after the air has been let out. You can also say, with the exception of the Buffalo game, two Pittsburgh games, one each with San Jose, Washington and Ottawa, that the Flyers had a shot to win every night. Even if, hypothetically, everyone returns to the lineup and no significant injuries occur the rest of the way, the team won't climb out of the Eastern Conference basement. They are 19 points behind second-to-last Florida with 35 games left. No shot. Just enjoy what little morsels of goodness that come along - a nice play, a surprise comeback win, or either goaltender stealing a game here and there, and hope the kids who have been forced up to the big club start thriving under a very steep learning curve.

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