Vancouver Canucks' general manager Dave Nonis put forth one heck of a rant about free agency and the state of the league schedule today.
Read all about it here:
Nonis on the Warpath
It does nobody good if the fresh young talent the league is dependent upon to boost interest and attendance throughout the league play the free-agency merry-go-round at age 25. In Crosby's case, he'll luck out by giving the Penguins (Pittsburgh/KC/Hamilton?) seven years before the magic date. Kids coming out of junior get a shorter span, and those coming into the NHL with college degrees really get the shaft. Secretly, this is the other intended consequence of King Bettman's plan to keep the small markets just as competitive with the big ones. Hypothetically, if Ovechkin decides to leave Washington at his (and the Caps') peak, voila! - there's bound to be a Nashville, Columbus, Calgary, or St. Louis who just so happens to have some room under the cap, ready to accept the next blue-chip guy to boost their profile. Thus, there's always constant marginal shift between teams, without the devastation of several teams having to do a firesale at the expense of the top playoff-bound teams. This plan means that 20-22 teams remain competitive consistently, always vying for the final 16 playoff spots. Does it work? It seemed to last year, but long-term effects can only be measured four, five years down the line. Eventually, enough players and GM's will get sick of having to retool their roster every three years, or get sick of retooling but finding out their group of players suddenly go from certified postseason to struggling through Game 82.
On the scheduling, I can only guess that Nonis started to suffer from lack of oxygen to the brain during his diatribe. There's no bleeping way Western teams fly as much as ever without going to the Central or Eastern time zones like they used to. In fact, the league specifically returned to the "two-games, one-city" plan they used to ease Winnipeg's travels in the Smythe division in the 1980's, to lessen whatever travel burden there is when you play your division rivals eight times a season. I wonder, are there any MIT or CalTech grads who read this who can explain to me how NOT traveling 6,000 miles round trip from Vancouver to New York and points East at least once a year means more flying and more travel? Make sure to show your work.
Anyway, he is totally correct on the schedule plan as it exists. I've been ranting and raving over the numerous things wrong with it ever since the plan was announced. A little background: When the Owners/League offered a compromise to the Players in '05, the deal that was struck was, in exchange for the 24 percent rollback on all salaries, players (who constantly bitched in the late 90's about having to go East or West from opposite ends of the continent) got the wish for a schedule that concentrated their travel better. Thus, the league invented the eight divisional games and four games against conference rivals. What suffered is the opposite conference plan, which only allows one game each on a rotating home-away plan in alternating years, and omits one whole division each year. Again, I suspect that Bettman's not-so-secret plan was to get as many Atlantic Division games on NBC and Versus, since the league offices are in New York. It just so happened to work in his favor that the three best hopes for the future (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin) are in the East as well. It is positively counter-intuitive, if the plan was to keep all 30 teams in the league, not to showcase each team's talent in all other arenas. I'd gladly take more Washington-Calgary (Ovechkin-Phaneuf) and Pittsburgh-Columbus (Crosby-Nash) games or Dallas-Philly games (Lindros saga) in exchange for dropping one conference game per team per year.
The best way I can figure, is to keep the 8 games in the division (32), but cut the conference games down to three per team (30). The remaining 20 games is tough to divide with 15 teams, but it can be done better. How about one opposite conference division gets two games (one home, one road) and the other two alternate home and road among their teams. This way, every team plays every other team at least once, and the opposite conference plan can be rotated so that every three years, one division gets to play another twice, and the other two once each. The optimal plan may be to cut down inter-division games to 22 (2 teams 5 times, 2 teams 6), conference games to 3 per team (30), and play every opposite conference team twice (30,for 82 total). I'm not a fan of that, since you play more conference games than division games, and more opposite conference games than even division ones. It also creates the most problems and mileage with travel, and if our boys are playing with 24 percent less pay, how can we expect them to tolerate long flights?
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Monday, October 30, 2006
Speechless, with Mouth Agape
Of all the indignities, small or large that have been visited upon the Flyers in just the first month of the season, Saturday night's loss seemed to be just about the worst.
Losing to the Penguins at home? Bound to happen every once in a while (twice in the last three years, not in 10 before that). Losing to the Penguins with a bunch of kids who have no expectations (surprise 2-1 loss in January, 2004)? OK. But scoring the game's first goal, then giving up the next six on the way to an 8-2 defeat is absolutely inexcusable.
Not even in Mario Lemieux's rookie year, when the Penguins and Flyers both sported youthful rosters, and enjoyed a season without the burden of contention hanging over their heads, did this happen. In fact, by the end of that 1984-85 season, tight-checking one-and-two goal games became 8-2 and 11-4 finals in the Flyers' favor. Maybe it's some kind of weird karmic curse - the 8-2 Flyers win over the Penguins on February 18th, 1985, signified that their group of youngsters under Mike Keenan had finally separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the Patrick Division. The reversal of that result may point to the fact that the 2006 edition of the Penguins are ready to reach for the heights and leave the weakened Flyers in the dust.
Record matching was the name of the game Saturday on South Broad: the loss tied the biggest at home to Pittsburgh in franchise history (6 goals, last time a 9-3 loss on 11/29/91). The Pens also tied the record for most consecutive goals scored in one game (6, in the same game).
Sadder still, is those records came in a time when the Penguins were loaded with talent on their way to back-to-back Stanley Cups - names like Lemieux, Francis, Stevens, Mullen, Murphy, Coffey, Jagr, etc...
This year's model features four teenagers, a couple of ancients in Recchi and LeClair, and some marginal but interchangeable talents.
What's unsettling, is that somehow, even the Bruins managed to hold the Senators to one goal in a 2-1 win at the New Garden. Ottawa had exploded for 21 goals in their previous three games.
Even worse, these losses harken back to the five-year playoff exodus, when those not-quite-good-enough-to-hang Flyers teams would eventually wear down an mix in some real stinkers with the usual one-and-two-goal scratch n' claw games.
The one ray of hope in all this, is that Flyers fans won't have to go through the season wondering where their beloved Winged P's will end up. Even if there are willing trade partners, and even when roster and attitude adjustments are made down the road, they are one step ahead of the Islanders, who figure to be the dregs of the division. There should be some comfort, albeit a severely uneasy one, that you won't have to be late for the bar or some party you're invited to at 9 PM on Friday or Saturday night. You won't have to anxiously request that the bartender put the Flyers game on the mega-watt plasma screen while you sink your wings and Coors light. Those of us who have the promise of tickets, or a free luxury box won't have to think twice about refusing, choosing instead to balance that pesky checkbook while Philly's version of Ice Follies plays in the background.
Losing to the Penguins at home? Bound to happen every once in a while (twice in the last three years, not in 10 before that). Losing to the Penguins with a bunch of kids who have no expectations (surprise 2-1 loss in January, 2004)? OK. But scoring the game's first goal, then giving up the next six on the way to an 8-2 defeat is absolutely inexcusable.
Not even in Mario Lemieux's rookie year, when the Penguins and Flyers both sported youthful rosters, and enjoyed a season without the burden of contention hanging over their heads, did this happen. In fact, by the end of that 1984-85 season, tight-checking one-and-two goal games became 8-2 and 11-4 finals in the Flyers' favor. Maybe it's some kind of weird karmic curse - the 8-2 Flyers win over the Penguins on February 18th, 1985, signified that their group of youngsters under Mike Keenan had finally separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the Patrick Division. The reversal of that result may point to the fact that the 2006 edition of the Penguins are ready to reach for the heights and leave the weakened Flyers in the dust.
Record matching was the name of the game Saturday on South Broad: the loss tied the biggest at home to Pittsburgh in franchise history (6 goals, last time a 9-3 loss on 11/29/91). The Pens also tied the record for most consecutive goals scored in one game (6, in the same game).
Sadder still, is those records came in a time when the Penguins were loaded with talent on their way to back-to-back Stanley Cups - names like Lemieux, Francis, Stevens, Mullen, Murphy, Coffey, Jagr, etc...
This year's model features four teenagers, a couple of ancients in Recchi and LeClair, and some marginal but interchangeable talents.
What's unsettling, is that somehow, even the Bruins managed to hold the Senators to one goal in a 2-1 win at the New Garden. Ottawa had exploded for 21 goals in their previous three games.
Even worse, these losses harken back to the five-year playoff exodus, when those not-quite-good-enough-to-hang Flyers teams would eventually wear down an mix in some real stinkers with the usual one-and-two-goal scratch n' claw games.
The one ray of hope in all this, is that Flyers fans won't have to go through the season wondering where their beloved Winged P's will end up. Even if there are willing trade partners, and even when roster and attitude adjustments are made down the road, they are one step ahead of the Islanders, who figure to be the dregs of the division. There should be some comfort, albeit a severely uneasy one, that you won't have to be late for the bar or some party you're invited to at 9 PM on Friday or Saturday night. You won't have to anxiously request that the bartender put the Flyers game on the mega-watt plasma screen while you sink your wings and Coors light. Those of us who have the promise of tickets, or a free luxury box won't have to think twice about refusing, choosing instead to balance that pesky checkbook while Philly's version of Ice Follies plays in the background.
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Today is the First Day of the Rest of Your...um...Season...
The John Stevens Era begins on South Broad tonight, and the test will be a tough one.
The Atlanta Thrashers come to town, a team that's half-a-beat away from being the Buffalo Sabres. Yep, they can score too, and feature two more brilliant forwards, Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa.
I'm not looking for a brilliant 30-save shutout. Let's face it, that ain't gonna happen. I'll settle for the pylons on defense to recover a small amount of motion back there, just a few good hits to disrupt Atlanta's offensive rhythm.
Something tells me this will be a night that we steal one. Maybe it's the 6 hours of sleep I got after working until 1:30 AM. Maybe it's the delirium of yet another coaching change. I'm thinking a 4-3 overtime win that sends the 19,000-plus home in renewed frenzy.
Ed. note: I wrote the last paragraph in a very facetious manner. I was pleased that the game almost turned out how I predicted, with a shootout win in lieu of an OT winner. Sadly, the love hangover from Game 1 of the Stevens era lasted all of two days.
The Atlanta Thrashers come to town, a team that's half-a-beat away from being the Buffalo Sabres. Yep, they can score too, and feature two more brilliant forwards, Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa.
I'm not looking for a brilliant 30-save shutout. Let's face it, that ain't gonna happen. I'll settle for the pylons on defense to recover a small amount of motion back there, just a few good hits to disrupt Atlanta's offensive rhythm.
Something tells me this will be a night that we steal one. Maybe it's the 6 hours of sleep I got after working until 1:30 AM. Maybe it's the delirium of yet another coaching change. I'm thinking a 4-3 overtime win that sends the 19,000-plus home in renewed frenzy.
Ed. note: I wrote the last paragraph in a very facetious manner. I was pleased that the game almost turned out how I predicted, with a shootout win in lieu of an OT winner. Sadly, the love hangover from Game 1 of the Stevens era lasted all of two days.
Monday, October 23, 2006
Sold 'Em Down The River
Waking up from a long alcohol-induced night's sleep, still bleary-eyed and trying to get into a killer mindset for work, I hear something strange coming out of my clock radio.
Breaking News...The Flyers decide to blow up their front office...General Manager Bob Clarke resigns, and head coach Ken Hitchcock is fired following a franchise worst 1-6-1 start...Owner Ed Snider has called an afternoon press conference...
That's about as far as I got before everything behind my eyes went white.
Ten seconds later, when I came to my senses, I could almost smell the guano being shoveled by the South Broad Street PR machine in preparation for the end of this charade. Since I was covered wall-to-wall at work watching the NFL at 1 and 4 PM, I didn't get to see how it all played out on radio and TV until late last night. This morning's papers made it all the clearer, though.
Bob Clarke is the valiant warrior whose time had come, and didn't realize it until it was too late to stop malaise from creeping in. The burn-out got so bad, he couldn't even bring himself to fire a trainer this summer after the decision was made. He also wasn't geared up enough to deliver the bad news to Ken Hitchcock. So, Ed Snider's favored son was able to come out of this with a resignation, basically having fired himself. Hitch, however, bore the full brunt of a firing, the major scapegoat for a moribund season, shown the door in a terse and shocking end to a relatively successful three-plus season stint.
With a day between and several off-hours to assess the situation, I find both men were to blame, victims of the very same character traits (and some might now say major flaws) that propelled them to success.
Clarke, ever the valiant fighter, basically turned into a clinically-depressed Nero fiddling while Flyerdom burned. It is a testament to his personality, built on nothing but relentless hard work and ability to flesh out loopholes to use for his advantage, that submarined him. He knew nothing but to soldier on, either blind to the symptoms of his self-described burn-out or convinced it was a phase he could quickly pass through. Knowing his state of mind, it becomes all the more disturbing how the last two off-seasons played out. Not only was the two-time GM unable to comprehend how the new rules affected his player choices, but it also seems like he was too willing to pass the buck, or go home and hide under the covers until the right move presented itself. What is all the more shocking, is that Clarke's position within the organization became so entrenched, and his demeanor so nondescript in the face of such an inner crisis, that no one could have recognized the signs, or no one who did could have gone to a higher level of management to let them know. In effect, his realization became more of a blessing that the 57-year-old came to his senses when the Flyers were a league-worst 1-6-1, instead of drawing out the drama further until the Flyers punctured the floor of the Seventh Level of Hockey Hell.
The head coach bears more immediate blame. In spite of the misguided moves the front office made to the on-ice product, it was Hitchcock's job to turn the mishmash of new kids and seasoned vets into a Cup-contending force. He failed miserably. Frankly, I'm not surprised. He came to Philly in 2002 with the promise of a willing bunch of veterans trying to get a shot at the silver chalice, and the total backing of the front office to do what he will to make that happen. However, as Clarke swiftly remade an aging team into one that's barely out of diapers, Hitchcock's coaching style and demeanor did not change to suit the times. Nobody seems to voice the fact that his Cup team, the 1999 Dallas Stars, had five potential Hall-of-Famers on the roster, guys who would have killed their own mothers to win the title. Players who have seen the grind of countless seasons with plenty of playoff disappointments will willingly put up with an abrasive personality like Hitchcock's for one shot at glory. It took less than three seasons post-Cup for that approach to flame out in Dallas, as virtually the same group of players rebelled against the constant friction. Hitchcock, a winner since juniors, did not come ready-made with his brand of biting, sarcastic verbiage intended to motivate his players, but he did sharpen it as Dallas rose from also-rans to Best in the West. He transferred it successfully to a hungry 2003-2004 Flyers team, who nonetheless could not reach the Cup finals.
However, with the swift roster transition, Hitchcock's approach remained unchanged, and its mind-bending effect on his new players' psyches totally backfired. With veterans, you trust they buy into your system and philosophy, and throw in some barbs when they perform below expectation. With youth, a successful coach needs to know when to use the velvet touch as well as the whip, to know when to dig in and teach in a hands-on manner while hammering home the need for discipline and focus. It is obvious that Ken Hitchcock applies a more regal, detached, and aloof approach behind the bench. It is also obvious that the youth did not, and probably could not process whatever was taught, and translate whatever was said effectively into on-ice performance. It is also obvious that when subtle mindgames become increasingly more obvious and public, like that with goaltender Robert Esche, the seeds of discord are ready to bloom. This unfortunate episode should not tarnish Hitchcock's reputation, nor should it bring about any stigma on his value as a winner. It should, though, be a lesson for the man to take to heart - that while prior reputation may give you the keys to the kingdom for a team that needs a stern hand to learn how to win, it does not absolve you from gaining the wisdom and insight to change when necessary. Almost 15 years ago, Hitchcock began his meteoric rise by crafting a formula to be a winner in the Western Hockey League, coaching 16-20 year olds. He parlayed that into a Stanley Cup and two high-profile coaching jobs. With the new-NHL so youth-oriented, he may do well to adjust his formula (along with attitude and philosophy) again to ensure success in what the league hopes to become.
Breaking News...The Flyers decide to blow up their front office...General Manager Bob Clarke resigns, and head coach Ken Hitchcock is fired following a franchise worst 1-6-1 start...Owner Ed Snider has called an afternoon press conference...
That's about as far as I got before everything behind my eyes went white.
Ten seconds later, when I came to my senses, I could almost smell the guano being shoveled by the South Broad Street PR machine in preparation for the end of this charade. Since I was covered wall-to-wall at work watching the NFL at 1 and 4 PM, I didn't get to see how it all played out on radio and TV until late last night. This morning's papers made it all the clearer, though.
Bob Clarke is the valiant warrior whose time had come, and didn't realize it until it was too late to stop malaise from creeping in. The burn-out got so bad, he couldn't even bring himself to fire a trainer this summer after the decision was made. He also wasn't geared up enough to deliver the bad news to Ken Hitchcock. So, Ed Snider's favored son was able to come out of this with a resignation, basically having fired himself. Hitch, however, bore the full brunt of a firing, the major scapegoat for a moribund season, shown the door in a terse and shocking end to a relatively successful three-plus season stint.
With a day between and several off-hours to assess the situation, I find both men were to blame, victims of the very same character traits (and some might now say major flaws) that propelled them to success.
Clarke, ever the valiant fighter, basically turned into a clinically-depressed Nero fiddling while Flyerdom burned. It is a testament to his personality, built on nothing but relentless hard work and ability to flesh out loopholes to use for his advantage, that submarined him. He knew nothing but to soldier on, either blind to the symptoms of his self-described burn-out or convinced it was a phase he could quickly pass through. Knowing his state of mind, it becomes all the more disturbing how the last two off-seasons played out. Not only was the two-time GM unable to comprehend how the new rules affected his player choices, but it also seems like he was too willing to pass the buck, or go home and hide under the covers until the right move presented itself. What is all the more shocking, is that Clarke's position within the organization became so entrenched, and his demeanor so nondescript in the face of such an inner crisis, that no one could have recognized the signs, or no one who did could have gone to a higher level of management to let them know. In effect, his realization became more of a blessing that the 57-year-old came to his senses when the Flyers were a league-worst 1-6-1, instead of drawing out the drama further until the Flyers punctured the floor of the Seventh Level of Hockey Hell.
The head coach bears more immediate blame. In spite of the misguided moves the front office made to the on-ice product, it was Hitchcock's job to turn the mishmash of new kids and seasoned vets into a Cup-contending force. He failed miserably. Frankly, I'm not surprised. He came to Philly in 2002 with the promise of a willing bunch of veterans trying to get a shot at the silver chalice, and the total backing of the front office to do what he will to make that happen. However, as Clarke swiftly remade an aging team into one that's barely out of diapers, Hitchcock's coaching style and demeanor did not change to suit the times. Nobody seems to voice the fact that his Cup team, the 1999 Dallas Stars, had five potential Hall-of-Famers on the roster, guys who would have killed their own mothers to win the title. Players who have seen the grind of countless seasons with plenty of playoff disappointments will willingly put up with an abrasive personality like Hitchcock's for one shot at glory. It took less than three seasons post-Cup for that approach to flame out in Dallas, as virtually the same group of players rebelled against the constant friction. Hitchcock, a winner since juniors, did not come ready-made with his brand of biting, sarcastic verbiage intended to motivate his players, but he did sharpen it as Dallas rose from also-rans to Best in the West. He transferred it successfully to a hungry 2003-2004 Flyers team, who nonetheless could not reach the Cup finals.
However, with the swift roster transition, Hitchcock's approach remained unchanged, and its mind-bending effect on his new players' psyches totally backfired. With veterans, you trust they buy into your system and philosophy, and throw in some barbs when they perform below expectation. With youth, a successful coach needs to know when to use the velvet touch as well as the whip, to know when to dig in and teach in a hands-on manner while hammering home the need for discipline and focus. It is obvious that Ken Hitchcock applies a more regal, detached, and aloof approach behind the bench. It is also obvious that the youth did not, and probably could not process whatever was taught, and translate whatever was said effectively into on-ice performance. It is also obvious that when subtle mindgames become increasingly more obvious and public, like that with goaltender Robert Esche, the seeds of discord are ready to bloom. This unfortunate episode should not tarnish Hitchcock's reputation, nor should it bring about any stigma on his value as a winner. It should, though, be a lesson for the man to take to heart - that while prior reputation may give you the keys to the kingdom for a team that needs a stern hand to learn how to win, it does not absolve you from gaining the wisdom and insight to change when necessary. Almost 15 years ago, Hitchcock began his meteoric rise by crafting a formula to be a winner in the Western Hockey League, coaching 16-20 year olds. He parlayed that into a Stanley Cup and two high-profile coaching jobs. With the new-NHL so youth-oriented, he may do well to adjust his formula (along with attitude and philosophy) again to ensure success in what the league hopes to become.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
The Hockey Version of Pearl Harbor
Another bad loss to a better team.
To Buffalo. In Buffalo.
9-1.
It is our day of infamy, worse than the five-goal home losses to Ottawa in the early goings of 2001 and 2002. Worse even than the oft-quoted 11-2 loss to Montreal in November, 1981. That team was expected to barely hold on against the Rangers and Islanders in the Patrick Division. This team, in certain circles, didn't even seem worthy of a playoff prediction out of the gate.
I hope the waivings of Petr Nedved, Nolan Baumgartner and Niko (don't call me Nicholas) Dimitrakos are only the first steps in a complete overhaul. Calling up Phantoms Ben Eager, Stefan Ruzicka, and Alexandre Picard are only stop-gaps to a dam that's almost totally burst. Eager fought hard every shift to earn a spot on the Flyers last year when injuries hit. This year, the audition is no joke - especially since R.J. Umberger hasn't seen his work turn into points.
The worst part of this early season collapse, is that it's too early to get another GM on the phone ready to deal. If the flame-out came around Thanksgiving, I tabbed Nedved and one of the young defensemen or forwards as part of a two-for-two deal to wherever. Never mind that Clarke's idea of "what's best for the organ-eye-zation" consists of finding a bona-fide sucker to take Flyer cast-offs, or that the Bruins ripped their post-lockout roster to shreds almost as early last year - these waiver moves are pretty much the most extreme measures Ca-larkie could make only six games in.
Things are getting desperate in our home, living in the parish of the restless folks I know. Let's hope nobody gets the brilliant idea to lead a fan revolt and threaten to burn down the mission.
Not yet, anyway.
To Buffalo. In Buffalo.
9-1.
It is our day of infamy, worse than the five-goal home losses to Ottawa in the early goings of 2001 and 2002. Worse even than the oft-quoted 11-2 loss to Montreal in November, 1981. That team was expected to barely hold on against the Rangers and Islanders in the Patrick Division. This team, in certain circles, didn't even seem worthy of a playoff prediction out of the gate.
I hope the waivings of Petr Nedved, Nolan Baumgartner and Niko (don't call me Nicholas) Dimitrakos are only the first steps in a complete overhaul. Calling up Phantoms Ben Eager, Stefan Ruzicka, and Alexandre Picard are only stop-gaps to a dam that's almost totally burst. Eager fought hard every shift to earn a spot on the Flyers last year when injuries hit. This year, the audition is no joke - especially since R.J. Umberger hasn't seen his work turn into points.
The worst part of this early season collapse, is that it's too early to get another GM on the phone ready to deal. If the flame-out came around Thanksgiving, I tabbed Nedved and one of the young defensemen or forwards as part of a two-for-two deal to wherever. Never mind that Clarke's idea of "what's best for the organ-eye-zation" consists of finding a bona-fide sucker to take Flyer cast-offs, or that the Bruins ripped their post-lockout roster to shreds almost as early last year - these waiver moves are pretty much the most extreme measures Ca-larkie could make only six games in.
Things are getting desperate in our home, living in the parish of the restless folks I know. Let's hope nobody gets the brilliant idea to lead a fan revolt and threaten to burn down the mission.
Not yet, anyway.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
This Date in Flyers History
October 17, 1991: Rick Tocchet surpassed Paul Holmgren for first place all-time in franchise penalty minutes with 1,601. It was a call for holding in the second period of a game at the Spectrum against the Quebec Nordiques. The Flyers won, 5-3.
Tocchet finished his Flyers career (1984-92; 2000-2002) with a total of 1,817 penalty minutes in just 621 games. He currently still holds the top mark, with Holmgren (1976-84) still in second place.
Heading into tonight's game in Buffalo, the Flyers have not won a game on October 17th since 1999, when they beat Buffalo, 5-2, at the then-named First Union Center.
Tocchet finished his Flyers career (1984-92; 2000-2002) with a total of 1,817 penalty minutes in just 621 games. He currently still holds the top mark, with Holmgren (1976-84) still in second place.
Heading into tonight's game in Buffalo, the Flyers have not won a game on October 17th since 1999, when they beat Buffalo, 5-2, at the then-named First Union Center.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Keep Yer Head Up
We had another scary moment Saturday night revolving around the testy budding rivalry between Carolina and Pittsburgh.
Canes forward Trevor Letowski had just sent a drop pass to one of his teammates, and still had his head turned in that direction, away from where his forward motion would take him. About a second or two later, a blur of Vegas Gold and Black dressed as Penguins forward Colby Armstrong slammed a glancing elbow across Letowski's head, causing the Carolina player to lose control of his body and fall to the ice with a concussion.
Although my job these days is to sit at a desk and skip through the satellite channels to check on hockey action throughout my shift, I missed the actual incident, but watched for a good 5 minutes as the stretcher came onto the ice to lift Letowski up and take him to the hospital. Replays eventually showed that Letowski couldn't have known Armstrong was there with his head turned, and that Armstrong's shoulder-elbow was not premeditated, since Armstrong's body was turned to the side, not directly facing, Letowski when the hit occurred.
Still, Carolina head coach Peter Laviolette had to engage in a little whining, calling Armstrong's hit a late one. The implication is that the hit was a dirty one on an unsuspecting player. Maybe he was engaging in a little bit of gamesmanship to get inside the young man's head, but the implication is unwarranted.
Let's not forget, every player goes through their paces in their early years before earning their reputations. Even the great Scott Stevens, whose shoulder-to-head hit on Eric Lindros in 2000 permanently changed Lindros' career, was called a dirty little kid when he first came up with the Capitals. Let's also not forget that the first incident between these teams, Brooks Orpik's blatant cross-check to the back of Erik Cole's head last year, caused Cole to miss a big chunk of time with a broken neck.
Letowski committed the Second Cardinal Sin of a forward: Even with your head up, turn your head in the direction you're skating. He paid for it, on the receiving end of a shoulder that I defy a 15-year veteran not to pass up. But it was not dirty in the least. Just unfortunate. Armstrong merely followed one of the rules of backchecking: always follow through on a hit. He'd do well to get himself in better position from now
on - getting his whole body turned into the check instead of only an arm.
Aside from the obvious effects of a concussion for Letowski, the other unfortunate part of the incident is that Armstrong will go through an undefined period of questioning himself on and off the ice. You'll start to notice a bit of hesitation, maybe some shying away from contact. Sometimes the toughest thing a young player can do is train himself mentally to shut out any subtle digs and play the game that got him to the Big Show.
Until the NHL begins to draft skilled and speedy players more in the Brian Gionta mold, these incidents will be more and more prevalent. Adding speed to the game only intensifies the impact of shoulder-to-head contact on players that still run in the 6-foot-plus, 200-plus pound range. The league didn't have this problem 20 years ago when games were high-scoring with plenty of hard hits and fighting. Maybe it's asking too much of league general managers on down to junior coaches to encourage smaller players to get a shot at the big time.
Canes forward Trevor Letowski had just sent a drop pass to one of his teammates, and still had his head turned in that direction, away from where his forward motion would take him. About a second or two later, a blur of Vegas Gold and Black dressed as Penguins forward Colby Armstrong slammed a glancing elbow across Letowski's head, causing the Carolina player to lose control of his body and fall to the ice with a concussion.
Although my job these days is to sit at a desk and skip through the satellite channels to check on hockey action throughout my shift, I missed the actual incident, but watched for a good 5 minutes as the stretcher came onto the ice to lift Letowski up and take him to the hospital. Replays eventually showed that Letowski couldn't have known Armstrong was there with his head turned, and that Armstrong's shoulder-elbow was not premeditated, since Armstrong's body was turned to the side, not directly facing, Letowski when the hit occurred.
Still, Carolina head coach Peter Laviolette had to engage in a little whining, calling Armstrong's hit a late one. The implication is that the hit was a dirty one on an unsuspecting player. Maybe he was engaging in a little bit of gamesmanship to get inside the young man's head, but the implication is unwarranted.
Let's not forget, every player goes through their paces in their early years before earning their reputations. Even the great Scott Stevens, whose shoulder-to-head hit on Eric Lindros in 2000 permanently changed Lindros' career, was called a dirty little kid when he first came up with the Capitals. Let's also not forget that the first incident between these teams, Brooks Orpik's blatant cross-check to the back of Erik Cole's head last year, caused Cole to miss a big chunk of time with a broken neck.
Letowski committed the Second Cardinal Sin of a forward: Even with your head up, turn your head in the direction you're skating. He paid for it, on the receiving end of a shoulder that I defy a 15-year veteran not to pass up. But it was not dirty in the least. Just unfortunate. Armstrong merely followed one of the rules of backchecking: always follow through on a hit. He'd do well to get himself in better position from now
on - getting his whole body turned into the check instead of only an arm.
Aside from the obvious effects of a concussion for Letowski, the other unfortunate part of the incident is that Armstrong will go through an undefined period of questioning himself on and off the ice. You'll start to notice a bit of hesitation, maybe some shying away from contact. Sometimes the toughest thing a young player can do is train himself mentally to shut out any subtle digs and play the game that got him to the Big Show.
Until the NHL begins to draft skilled and speedy players more in the Brian Gionta mold, these incidents will be more and more prevalent. Adding speed to the game only intensifies the impact of shoulder-to-head contact on players that still run in the 6-foot-plus, 200-plus pound range. The league didn't have this problem 20 years ago when games were high-scoring with plenty of hard hits and fighting. Maybe it's asking too much of league general managers on down to junior coaches to encourage smaller players to get a shot at the big time.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Semi-Random Ramblings
OK - I've cleared the decks with the division previews and it took longer than I expected, now on with the rest of the show...
Some observations about the first 10 days of the regular season:
Some observations about the first 10 days of the regular season:
- Scoring is down slightly from this time last season. Even in the early going, about 80 percent of the games are within two goals. The lone blowout was Detroit netting nine against a Phoenix team that has a pathological inability to win on the road. Teams playing it even this close to the vest so early on is a harbinger for the middle part of the season and the squeeze near the end. In the pre-lockout NHL, goals per game looked like a reverse hourglass - skinny at the top and bottom, fatter in the middle. The trend should continue this year, but there won't be many more 6-5, 7-6 games in January than there are thus far. The number of shutouts already has raised a red flag as well.
- The Flyers-Rangers 13 round, 26 man shootout only reinforced my belief that this little invention to keep fannies in seats is completely inane. By the 7th round, shooters pretty much stopped being creative, and it looked by the end like fatigue had set in from 65 minutes of high-octane play plus those breakaways. Even though a fluke goal tied the game and gave the Rangers a point right away, I would have been fine seeing a well-played 4-4 tie. Ditto with Toronto-New Jersey from Thursday night. I don't know any half-brained fan who would be or should be crying for a definitive result after the Devils scored six, and the Devils gave up six. I can't repeat this enough, people. Ties are not "Un-American." Ties are not cheap anymore, especially since the league is one step away from awarding a point just for showing up at the rink on time. Wins are wins, ties are ties with each team getting a point, so why force yourselves to think a loss with a point is anything but a loss?
- The following quote should be laughed at by fans, questioned intensely by beat writers and columnists, and players subject to electro-shock if uttered: "We were tight all game because there's pressure from the home fans to do something to get them into the game." ANY system, whether it's forechecking, backchecking, power play, penalty kill, or line changes, automatically forces a team to think and act like automata who cannot seize the opportunity to use emotion, drive, and creativity to beat the visiting team. It's amazing to me how many teams still employ rigid systems and expect to win with more speed and skill - the two are direct opposites. Ken Hitchcock and Jacques Lemaire are the chief examples of this failed philosophy. No wonder the Flyers can't get past the second round, and Minnesota can't find its way past fourth place, despite the talent that each team possesses. Meanwhile, the Devils keep winning 25 games a year on the road.
- For the love of the Hockey Gods, let's stop using the AHL as the guinea pig for every potential rule change in the NHL. The mother bringing her three little kids for a night out of alternative entertainment is always going to be less aware and less impressed with the tweaks in the rules than they are at the three-ring circus that goes on between face-offs, timeouts and intermissions. Young kids in Omaha, San Antonio, or Milwaukee who may not have a grip on the history of the sport will be suckered in for new rules if it's couched as anything "for the good of the game," or if it's done "to boost the excitement of the game." These are the only people the AHL poll because they're asked by the NHL to gauge these specific fan bases. We need to get a poll together of grizzled oldheads in Hershey, Winnipeg, Chicago or Providence to say the game would be improved if the opponents were executed in the Aztec tradition (the losers would be sacrificed to the gods, en masse, in a large ceremony). That would definitely make arguments over the trapezoid moot, huh?
- Former Flyer Watch: Jon Sim (ATL) 4 goals; Eric Lindros (DAL) 1 goal, 4 assists; Patrick Sharp (CHI) 2 goals; Michal Handzus (CHI) 2 goals, 6 points; Kim Johnsson (MIN) 2 goals; Justin Williams and Rod Brind'Amour (CAR) 3 assists each, team co-leaders in scoring. Who needs 'em anyway?
Friday, October 13, 2006
Atlantic Finale
New Jersey - Los Diablos seem to be everybody's favorite to make at least the conference finals year after year, no matter if they've made a miraculous second-half run of if they've dominated from start to finish. There's no reason to think this year won't be the case.
The Devils grew their reputation from getting the most out of the least, in talent and financially. I think they can finally shed that perception and lay waste to that backhanded compliment for good. Other than shucking Alexander Mogilny and unloading Vladimir Malakhov to San Jose in salary cap moves, New Jersey is a team that is confident standing pat. And why not? They have 48-goal scorer Brian Gionta back in the fold, and his EGG Line (with Scott Gomez and Patrik Elias) intact as well. Jamie Langenbrunner, Dan LaCouture, Jay Pandolfo and John Madden are charged with holding down opponents' top lines and adding clutch scoring touch. The defense, (while it will never return to its Chinese Wall glory days with Stevens and Daneyko) are young, mobile, agile and hostile. More is expected of Brian Rafalski after an up-and-down season last year, but he should have no trouble being the guide for the remainder of the eager but inexperienced defensive corps. Of course, there's always Martin Brodeur if all else fails. You can expect the usual 70 games, 2 to 2 1/2 goals against, a host of shutouts, and competitiveness the same as in the previous 12 seasons.
The Devils made great strides once again transforming their team into one that has as much firepower as staying power. With a weaker division and competition from the Rangers and Flyers less likely, Jersey will come out on top once again. Prediction: First place, two seed in playoffs.
NY Islanders - They should be re-named the "eye-slanders." Seriously, the ownership and front office shenanigans that marked the Islanders offseason will make watching games at the Nassau County Mausoleum even more offensive to the sighted ticket holder than in that late 1990's dip - and they'll do it without the Gorton's Fisherman jerseys.
Where to start? Alexei Yashin, who bears the captain's "C" as if it were drawn on with a dark blue magic marker? Rick DiPietro, the man who was such a "can't miss" in the 2000 draft, that the team gave up on Roberto Luongo, given a 15-year contract?? A roster predominantly stocked with last year's Bridgeport Sound Tigers?? I feel bad for Brendan Witt, Mike Sillinger, and Chris Simon, three players who signed onto Long Island in the summer. They will be looked upon to be the calming influence for a green Isles team. Even the sum of their parts won't be able to steer New York through bad waters. I feel even worse for Mike Dunham, a goaltender who has learned from Martin Brodeur, built a solid career in Nashville alongside Tomas Vokoun, now relegated to back-up behind the Golden Boy of Boston University. The Islanders may be able to steal a few games in the division or the conference at times, but the only purpose they will serve within the Atlantic will either be the pillow upon which the Flyers will rest after they've been run through by the Rangers and Devils, or the ceiling by which Pittsburgh measures the success of its youth movement.
The angry curses of every team the Isles beat on their way to four Cups are now coming back around to haunt this broken-down nag of a franchise. Prediction: 4th place. Will send flowers to the Penguins at the end of the season.
NY Rangers - More than big-name offensive talent and bone-rattling brawn on defense, the one thing that held the Rangers back last season was a player with heart and a tough-love approach to the game. Lucky for the Blueshirts, they found their man.
Brendan Shanahan is not the force of nature he was, scoring 46 goals between Hartford and Detroit back in 1996-97, but he's the closest living facsimile to Mark Messier the NHL has to offer. For a team on the verge of making noise in the regular and postseasons, the Rangers signed the most important player to push their squad over the hill. He'll more than make up for the combined losses of Martin Rucinsky (to St. Louis) and Jed Ortmayer (to a pulmonary embolism). The addition of forward Matt Cullen and defenseman Aaron Ward, both fresh from a Cup win in Carolina, adds depth and grit on the backline and another second-or-third-line threat. If Darius Kasparaitis remains free of the groin injuries that plagued his starts and cost him a big chunk of the season, and if the Jagr-Straka-Nylander-Prucha axis of scoring still spins as deadly as it did one season ago, the Rangers can be a top-flight team once again. Also, I'm not expecting Henrik Lundqvist to turn into the second coming of Pelle Lindbergh, but he's capable enough of making great strides this year against offenses that won't enjoy as much free rein. What's going to hold back the Manhattanites is, they will inevitably lose ground against at least Philly, the Devils, Buffalo and Ottawa in the conference. Prediction: 2nd place.
Philadelphia - In the course of three years and two seasons, Bob Clarke has once again indulged in hyper-rationalization of league philosophy. Fresh from the scorch marks Buffalo left all over the orange and black, Clarke has turned a predominantly veteran team who took Tampa Bay to seven games in 2004, into a predominantly youthful one.
There are several big problems in the mix for this season. First, the forward signings of Mark Cullen, Marty Murray, and Randy Robitaille. Next, the trade of durable fan favorite and space-creator Michal Handzus to Chicago for Kyle Calder. Finally, the promotions of Boyd Kane, Riley Cote, the retention of Niko Dimitrakos, and the inability to grab back two undervalued snipers from last year: Patrick Sharp and Jon Sim. Geoff Sanderson, another of the league's Ageless Wonders, gets a pass, because, even at age 36, he's worth three Brian Savages with his speed and scoring touch. Let's not even discuss the conversion of Petr Nedved into a checking winger. These minor disasters are counterbalanced by the success of the Gagne-Forsberg-Knuble first line, and the Carter-Richards-Whoever second line. The defense lost two of its best players - Kim Johnsson to Minnesota, and Eric Desjardins to retirement. In their place, a hopeless amalgam of spare parts: Nolan Baumgartner, Lars Jonsson, Freddy Meyer, and (depending on the injury situation) a nameless Phantom of the Week. The Terrible Twosome of Hatcher and Rathje figures to be on the receiving end of several thousand boos over the course of a 41-game home schedule. Joni Pitkanen and Denis Gauthier provide excellent counterpoint with their specialties, and will be the brightest spots through some tough times.
The goaltending issues in this city will never be resolved, as long as every Swede, Finn, Canuck and Yank who come down the pike are force-wedged into the Parent-Lidbergh-Hextall hero mold. The combined talents of the monster labelled "Roberto Eschimaki" are at best, a one-a and a two. Together, they will hold up fine, but "fine" doesn't cut it for a team that will fall short of the Cup for the 31st season. The Flyers are a team with so many puzzle pieces, you look at the whole and might see the Eiffel Tower sticking out of the side of the Taj Mahal, set inside the Grand Canyon. Prediction: 3rd place, with a lower win and point total than last year.
Pittsburgh - I don't know whether it will be due to the new owner, or the reluctance of the people of the Golden Triangle to welcome slots or pay for a new arena with public funds or taxes, but the Penguins will not be in Pittsburgh three years from now. Hartford, Hamilton, Winnipeg, wherever they land, will get to see some up-and-coming young talent as good as when the Nordiques came up in the mid 1990's.
In the final absence of Mario Lemieux on the ice, Mark Recchi and John LeClair are capable veterans who will provide on-and-off ice guidance and some needed offense to a team barely out of diapers. Crosby, Staal, and Letang are full of promise, but we only know that Crosby is the real deal. Ryan Malone, Michel Ouellet, Colby Armstrong, and Dominic Moore are a good young secondary nucleus. Sergei Gonchar gets the unfair task of presiding over a young defense that was left with a gaping hole once Dick Tarnstrom was dealt to Edmonton down the stretch last season. Marc-Andre Fleury and Jocelyn Thibault are competent enough in net to cut down on the number of potentially embarrasing losses. There's really not much left to say about a team that's been "On Notice" for ten years, now most likely playing out the string in a city that will be devastated without their presence. Prediction: 5th place.
The Devils grew their reputation from getting the most out of the least, in talent and financially. I think they can finally shed that perception and lay waste to that backhanded compliment for good. Other than shucking Alexander Mogilny and unloading Vladimir Malakhov to San Jose in salary cap moves, New Jersey is a team that is confident standing pat. And why not? They have 48-goal scorer Brian Gionta back in the fold, and his EGG Line (with Scott Gomez and Patrik Elias) intact as well. Jamie Langenbrunner, Dan LaCouture, Jay Pandolfo and John Madden are charged with holding down opponents' top lines and adding clutch scoring touch. The defense, (while it will never return to its Chinese Wall glory days with Stevens and Daneyko) are young, mobile, agile and hostile. More is expected of Brian Rafalski after an up-and-down season last year, but he should have no trouble being the guide for the remainder of the eager but inexperienced defensive corps. Of course, there's always Martin Brodeur if all else fails. You can expect the usual 70 games, 2 to 2 1/2 goals against, a host of shutouts, and competitiveness the same as in the previous 12 seasons.
The Devils made great strides once again transforming their team into one that has as much firepower as staying power. With a weaker division and competition from the Rangers and Flyers less likely, Jersey will come out on top once again. Prediction: First place, two seed in playoffs.
NY Islanders - They should be re-named the "eye-slanders." Seriously, the ownership and front office shenanigans that marked the Islanders offseason will make watching games at the Nassau County Mausoleum even more offensive to the sighted ticket holder than in that late 1990's dip - and they'll do it without the Gorton's Fisherman jerseys.
Where to start? Alexei Yashin, who bears the captain's "C" as if it were drawn on with a dark blue magic marker? Rick DiPietro, the man who was such a "can't miss" in the 2000 draft, that the team gave up on Roberto Luongo, given a 15-year contract?? A roster predominantly stocked with last year's Bridgeport Sound Tigers?? I feel bad for Brendan Witt, Mike Sillinger, and Chris Simon, three players who signed onto Long Island in the summer. They will be looked upon to be the calming influence for a green Isles team. Even the sum of their parts won't be able to steer New York through bad waters. I feel even worse for Mike Dunham, a goaltender who has learned from Martin Brodeur, built a solid career in Nashville alongside Tomas Vokoun, now relegated to back-up behind the Golden Boy of Boston University. The Islanders may be able to steal a few games in the division or the conference at times, but the only purpose they will serve within the Atlantic will either be the pillow upon which the Flyers will rest after they've been run through by the Rangers and Devils, or the ceiling by which Pittsburgh measures the success of its youth movement.
The angry curses of every team the Isles beat on their way to four Cups are now coming back around to haunt this broken-down nag of a franchise. Prediction: 4th place. Will send flowers to the Penguins at the end of the season.
NY Rangers - More than big-name offensive talent and bone-rattling brawn on defense, the one thing that held the Rangers back last season was a player with heart and a tough-love approach to the game. Lucky for the Blueshirts, they found their man.
Brendan Shanahan is not the force of nature he was, scoring 46 goals between Hartford and Detroit back in 1996-97, but he's the closest living facsimile to Mark Messier the NHL has to offer. For a team on the verge of making noise in the regular and postseasons, the Rangers signed the most important player to push their squad over the hill. He'll more than make up for the combined losses of Martin Rucinsky (to St. Louis) and Jed Ortmayer (to a pulmonary embolism). The addition of forward Matt Cullen and defenseman Aaron Ward, both fresh from a Cup win in Carolina, adds depth and grit on the backline and another second-or-third-line threat. If Darius Kasparaitis remains free of the groin injuries that plagued his starts and cost him a big chunk of the season, and if the Jagr-Straka-Nylander-Prucha axis of scoring still spins as deadly as it did one season ago, the Rangers can be a top-flight team once again. Also, I'm not expecting Henrik Lundqvist to turn into the second coming of Pelle Lindbergh, but he's capable enough of making great strides this year against offenses that won't enjoy as much free rein. What's going to hold back the Manhattanites is, they will inevitably lose ground against at least Philly, the Devils, Buffalo and Ottawa in the conference. Prediction: 2nd place.
Philadelphia - In the course of three years and two seasons, Bob Clarke has once again indulged in hyper-rationalization of league philosophy. Fresh from the scorch marks Buffalo left all over the orange and black, Clarke has turned a predominantly veteran team who took Tampa Bay to seven games in 2004, into a predominantly youthful one.
There are several big problems in the mix for this season. First, the forward signings of Mark Cullen, Marty Murray, and Randy Robitaille. Next, the trade of durable fan favorite and space-creator Michal Handzus to Chicago for Kyle Calder. Finally, the promotions of Boyd Kane, Riley Cote, the retention of Niko Dimitrakos, and the inability to grab back two undervalued snipers from last year: Patrick Sharp and Jon Sim. Geoff Sanderson, another of the league's Ageless Wonders, gets a pass, because, even at age 36, he's worth three Brian Savages with his speed and scoring touch. Let's not even discuss the conversion of Petr Nedved into a checking winger. These minor disasters are counterbalanced by the success of the Gagne-Forsberg-Knuble first line, and the Carter-Richards-Whoever second line. The defense lost two of its best players - Kim Johnsson to Minnesota, and Eric Desjardins to retirement. In their place, a hopeless amalgam of spare parts: Nolan Baumgartner, Lars Jonsson, Freddy Meyer, and (depending on the injury situation) a nameless Phantom of the Week. The Terrible Twosome of Hatcher and Rathje figures to be on the receiving end of several thousand boos over the course of a 41-game home schedule. Joni Pitkanen and Denis Gauthier provide excellent counterpoint with their specialties, and will be the brightest spots through some tough times.
The goaltending issues in this city will never be resolved, as long as every Swede, Finn, Canuck and Yank who come down the pike are force-wedged into the Parent-Lidbergh-Hextall hero mold. The combined talents of the monster labelled "Roberto Eschimaki" are at best, a one-a and a two. Together, they will hold up fine, but "fine" doesn't cut it for a team that will fall short of the Cup for the 31st season. The Flyers are a team with so many puzzle pieces, you look at the whole and might see the Eiffel Tower sticking out of the side of the Taj Mahal, set inside the Grand Canyon. Prediction: 3rd place, with a lower win and point total than last year.
Pittsburgh - I don't know whether it will be due to the new owner, or the reluctance of the people of the Golden Triangle to welcome slots or pay for a new arena with public funds or taxes, but the Penguins will not be in Pittsburgh three years from now. Hartford, Hamilton, Winnipeg, wherever they land, will get to see some up-and-coming young talent as good as when the Nordiques came up in the mid 1990's.
In the final absence of Mario Lemieux on the ice, Mark Recchi and John LeClair are capable veterans who will provide on-and-off ice guidance and some needed offense to a team barely out of diapers. Crosby, Staal, and Letang are full of promise, but we only know that Crosby is the real deal. Ryan Malone, Michel Ouellet, Colby Armstrong, and Dominic Moore are a good young secondary nucleus. Sergei Gonchar gets the unfair task of presiding over a young defense that was left with a gaping hole once Dick Tarnstrom was dealt to Edmonton down the stretch last season. Marc-Andre Fleury and Jocelyn Thibault are competent enough in net to cut down on the number of potentially embarrasing losses. There's really not much left to say about a team that's been "On Notice" for ten years, now most likely playing out the string in a city that will be devastated without their presence. Prediction: 5th place.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Northeast Direct
Boston - Year after year, whether it's a small amount of tinkering or a series of moves that blow out half a roster, the Bruins organization has always touted itself as one that can put competitive teams on the ice for a budget. Three decades into the reign of error that marks Jeremy Jacobs' imprint on the B's, and the team is in danger of becoming a perennial cellar dweller.
There's no question now that the three-for-one Joe Thornton trade set the Bruins back at least four years. That deal robbed the city of its only marketable icon, and robbed the on-ice product of its greatest hope. True, the number three overall pick from 1997 was never going to be an Orr, Esposito, Bourque, or even Oates, but for whatever he was, his presence on Causeway Street was the lynchpin that held the team together. Leaving a core of Glen Murray, Patrice Bergeron, Mark Mowers, and Marco Sturm to carry the offense is not much to build upon. Adding Marc Savard as a free agent is a big step forward, but he's nowhere close to providing the assists and creating the space Thornton did. Young bucks Phil Kessel and Brad Boyes, Paul Mara and Yan Stastny possess nothing more than tremendous potential, which is a shaky thing when your learning curve comes in a tough division and conference. Grabbing Zdeno Chara from Ottawa
improves the defense, though I'm not quite sure how he's going to be more than a Hal Gill surrogate with more scoring punch. I'm also uncertain how putting the "C" on his jersey will impact the leadership void that existed after late November last season. With the departure of Andrew Raycroft to Toronto, you're left with the equally enigmatic Hannu Toivonen and Tim Thomas in the crease. The Bruins won't be near the bottom of the league in goals against, but they won't be tough enough to pull close enough to even be in the race for the postseason.
Prediction: Last place, but that's no shame in the always tough Northeast.
Buffalo - The "Goat Lord Logo" is Gone! The "Goat Splash Logo" is here! It's a new day for the city on the Niagara!
The Sabres are another sexy pick to reach the Cup finals from the Eastern Conference, and I'm close to being convinced they have a legitimate shot to make the push through this year. Other than having to ditch J.P. Dumont and trade Taylor Pyatt due to salary cap issues, Buffalo's roster is untouched - which is fantastic for team chemistry. Head Coach Lindy Ruff is approaching Master Motivator status, and he will use the lessons learned from last year's surprise second-place finish to crack the whip this year. Even if the tandem of Martin Biron and Ryan Miller don't turn in an equally stellar performance this time around, they are still the best one-two punch in goal in the entire conference. Ruff would do well to create a starter-backup system that's about a 55-45 split to maximize both men's potential.
The Senators proved to be the only barrier to Buffalo in 05-06. Not so this year. Prediction: First place, second playoff seed.
Montreal - The Canadiens had their first round series against Carolina well in hand, up 2-0 coming back home with a chance to sweep. Then, they flat out stopped scoring, dropped four straight, and went home early while Carolina won the Cup.
The script has been the same for the Habs every year since 1994 - doing enough to get to the postseason, but not doing enough to push through to the next round. Every season Montreal has won a playoff round since 1993, hot goaltending was the sole factor in their advance. There's no reason to think it won't be the case again this year. That's a very sad fact of life for the most dominant franchise in NHL history, that over-expansion has watered down rosters to the point that even the mighty Habs are constantly on the bubble. Mike Ribeiro and Richard Zednik are gone, replaced by Sergei Samsonov and Mike Johnson. The defense has improved offensively, now that Janne Niinimaa will join Sheldon Souray as guns from the point on the power play. Everything else is in place from the end of last season. You can expect a solid but unspectacular season from Alex Kovalev, yeoman's work and at least 20 games lost to injury from Saku Koivu, and veiled threats leveled at the head of the vicious Alexander Perezhogin. David Aebischer should feel as comfortable as he's going to be wearing the bleu, blanc et rouge and being the anointed next link in the Roy-Theodore goalie-savior chain.
It's another year when the Montrealers will be on the edge of their seats, wishing, hoping, praying the Canadiens will squeak into the postseason. Prediction: 4th place, no playoffs, but a .500 record.
Ottawa - Nobody in the 30-team NHL can duplicate a 52-win, 113-point, 300+goal season. However, the Sens seem to have no problem doing the above, then confounding expectations by turning soft in the playoffs.
Ottawa won't be winning many 8-1 games this season, and they may not be winning many one-or-two goal games this year, either. Losing your spiritual leader on defense to a division rival, and keeping two less-than-stellar goaltenders will do that. As long as Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza are healthy, they will put up numbers, make the game exciting, and carry the Sens to quite a few wins this year. However, with the loss of Bryan Smolinski, the second line has a HUGE hole in production potential. Dean McAmmond is more of an interchangeable part than bona-fide threat or replacement. The departures of Chara to Boston and Vaclav Varada to Europe will be devastating to a defensive corps that at one time could steamroll forwards and shoot the puck with deadly precision. Like Akeem Olajuwon without Ralph Sampson, Wade Redden without Chara will be a lonely Tower struggling to stay upright against the offensive rush. Ottawa will have a surprising amount of toughness, with Denis Hamel, Brian McGrattan, Chris Neil and Christoph Schubert - but that only means more games will be knock-down, drag-out struggles than last year's routine goal splurges.
Expect at least a 40-goal drop on offense, but expect ScotiaBank Place to be a rougher place to play this year. Knowing what it is to leave everything on the ice in the regular season may be the final piece to the puzzle of advancing in the East. Prediction: 2nd place, 42-45 wins.
Toronto - Fans in Toronto should be cautiously humming The Who's "Won't Get Fooled Again" quietly to themselves as they pack the Air Canada Centre. Meet the new boss! Same as the old boss?
Paul Maurice has been given a blank check and blank slate to remake the Leafs in his image. Gone are the Pat Quinn years of flashy offense bolstered by the Domi-Tucker riot act. Here, is the preacher of defensive responsibility locked inside a framework that makes the game fun for the kids. Also gone are Ed "The Billion Dollar Man" Belfour and Eric "This Space For Rent" Lindros. What's on the ice is a mixed bag. Mats Sundin, Darcy Tucker, Michael Peca, Bryan McCabe and Jeff O'Neill will do exactly what we've come to expect. Stajan, Steen, Wellwood, and Ponikarovsky are the young fulcrum around which the Leafs will turn. How they fare individually and as a group will determine how well Toronto does in the 72-game Eastern gauntlet. Wade Belak and Hal Gill won't be skating, they'll look like they're playing defense on stilts. Jean-Sebastien Aubin and Andrew Raycroft will play net like Angels one week, and like Demons the next. Either Toronto will go through the season never winning or losing more than 3 or 4 in a row, or they'll be winning 10 and losing 10 at various points.
I give the edge to Toronto over Montreal, because the Leafs have more veterans capable of better production and leadership than the Habs. Prediction: 3rd place, just above Montreal, maybe an 8th seed.
There's no question now that the three-for-one Joe Thornton trade set the Bruins back at least four years. That deal robbed the city of its only marketable icon, and robbed the on-ice product of its greatest hope. True, the number three overall pick from 1997 was never going to be an Orr, Esposito, Bourque, or even Oates, but for whatever he was, his presence on Causeway Street was the lynchpin that held the team together. Leaving a core of Glen Murray, Patrice Bergeron, Mark Mowers, and Marco Sturm to carry the offense is not much to build upon. Adding Marc Savard as a free agent is a big step forward, but he's nowhere close to providing the assists and creating the space Thornton did. Young bucks Phil Kessel and Brad Boyes, Paul Mara and Yan Stastny possess nothing more than tremendous potential, which is a shaky thing when your learning curve comes in a tough division and conference. Grabbing Zdeno Chara from Ottawa
improves the defense, though I'm not quite sure how he's going to be more than a Hal Gill surrogate with more scoring punch. I'm also uncertain how putting the "C" on his jersey will impact the leadership void that existed after late November last season. With the departure of Andrew Raycroft to Toronto, you're left with the equally enigmatic Hannu Toivonen and Tim Thomas in the crease. The Bruins won't be near the bottom of the league in goals against, but they won't be tough enough to pull close enough to even be in the race for the postseason.
Prediction: Last place, but that's no shame in the always tough Northeast.
Buffalo - The "Goat Lord Logo" is Gone! The "Goat Splash Logo" is here! It's a new day for the city on the Niagara!
The Sabres are another sexy pick to reach the Cup finals from the Eastern Conference, and I'm close to being convinced they have a legitimate shot to make the push through this year. Other than having to ditch J.P. Dumont and trade Taylor Pyatt due to salary cap issues, Buffalo's roster is untouched - which is fantastic for team chemistry. Head Coach Lindy Ruff is approaching Master Motivator status, and he will use the lessons learned from last year's surprise second-place finish to crack the whip this year. Even if the tandem of Martin Biron and Ryan Miller don't turn in an equally stellar performance this time around, they are still the best one-two punch in goal in the entire conference. Ruff would do well to create a starter-backup system that's about a 55-45 split to maximize both men's potential.
The Senators proved to be the only barrier to Buffalo in 05-06. Not so this year. Prediction: First place, second playoff seed.
Montreal - The Canadiens had their first round series against Carolina well in hand, up 2-0 coming back home with a chance to sweep. Then, they flat out stopped scoring, dropped four straight, and went home early while Carolina won the Cup.
The script has been the same for the Habs every year since 1994 - doing enough to get to the postseason, but not doing enough to push through to the next round. Every season Montreal has won a playoff round since 1993, hot goaltending was the sole factor in their advance. There's no reason to think it won't be the case again this year. That's a very sad fact of life for the most dominant franchise in NHL history, that over-expansion has watered down rosters to the point that even the mighty Habs are constantly on the bubble. Mike Ribeiro and Richard Zednik are gone, replaced by Sergei Samsonov and Mike Johnson. The defense has improved offensively, now that Janne Niinimaa will join Sheldon Souray as guns from the point on the power play. Everything else is in place from the end of last season. You can expect a solid but unspectacular season from Alex Kovalev, yeoman's work and at least 20 games lost to injury from Saku Koivu, and veiled threats leveled at the head of the vicious Alexander Perezhogin. David Aebischer should feel as comfortable as he's going to be wearing the bleu, blanc et rouge and being the anointed next link in the Roy-Theodore goalie-savior chain.
It's another year when the Montrealers will be on the edge of their seats, wishing, hoping, praying the Canadiens will squeak into the postseason. Prediction: 4th place, no playoffs, but a .500 record.
Ottawa - Nobody in the 30-team NHL can duplicate a 52-win, 113-point, 300+goal season. However, the Sens seem to have no problem doing the above, then confounding expectations by turning soft in the playoffs.
Ottawa won't be winning many 8-1 games this season, and they may not be winning many one-or-two goal games this year, either. Losing your spiritual leader on defense to a division rival, and keeping two less-than-stellar goaltenders will do that. As long as Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza are healthy, they will put up numbers, make the game exciting, and carry the Sens to quite a few wins this year. However, with the loss of Bryan Smolinski, the second line has a HUGE hole in production potential. Dean McAmmond is more of an interchangeable part than bona-fide threat or replacement. The departures of Chara to Boston and Vaclav Varada to Europe will be devastating to a defensive corps that at one time could steamroll forwards and shoot the puck with deadly precision. Like Akeem Olajuwon without Ralph Sampson, Wade Redden without Chara will be a lonely Tower struggling to stay upright against the offensive rush. Ottawa will have a surprising amount of toughness, with Denis Hamel, Brian McGrattan, Chris Neil and Christoph Schubert - but that only means more games will be knock-down, drag-out struggles than last year's routine goal splurges.
Expect at least a 40-goal drop on offense, but expect ScotiaBank Place to be a rougher place to play this year. Knowing what it is to leave everything on the ice in the regular season may be the final piece to the puzzle of advancing in the East. Prediction: 2nd place, 42-45 wins.
Toronto - Fans in Toronto should be cautiously humming The Who's "Won't Get Fooled Again" quietly to themselves as they pack the Air Canada Centre. Meet the new boss! Same as the old boss?
Paul Maurice has been given a blank check and blank slate to remake the Leafs in his image. Gone are the Pat Quinn years of flashy offense bolstered by the Domi-Tucker riot act. Here, is the preacher of defensive responsibility locked inside a framework that makes the game fun for the kids. Also gone are Ed "The Billion Dollar Man" Belfour and Eric "This Space For Rent" Lindros. What's on the ice is a mixed bag. Mats Sundin, Darcy Tucker, Michael Peca, Bryan McCabe and Jeff O'Neill will do exactly what we've come to expect. Stajan, Steen, Wellwood, and Ponikarovsky are the young fulcrum around which the Leafs will turn. How they fare individually and as a group will determine how well Toronto does in the 72-game Eastern gauntlet. Wade Belak and Hal Gill won't be skating, they'll look like they're playing defense on stilts. Jean-Sebastien Aubin and Andrew Raycroft will play net like Angels one week, and like Demons the next. Either Toronto will go through the season never winning or losing more than 3 or 4 in a row, or they'll be winning 10 and losing 10 at various points.
I give the edge to Toronto over Montreal, because the Leafs have more veterans capable of better production and leadership than the Habs. Prediction: 3rd place, just above Montreal, maybe an 8th seed.
Monday, October 09, 2006
Nothing Cute To Say About the Southeast
Atlanta - A million tongues have grown tired over the years, always picking those young but plucky underdogs to "take the next step" every year since 2003 and grab that elusive playoff spot. Somehow, there are always different voices trumpeting the cause. I just don't see it.
At their heart, the Thrashers are a team with an explosive offense that can have fans on the edge of their seats, always thin on defense, and porous for any number of reasons in net. This year is no different. Ilya Kovalchuk will threaten the 50-goal plateau, while Marian Hossa and Slava Kozlov will flit around the ice almost at will to put up their points. However, after Jon Sim, you can't expect a lot of production from the third or fourth lines. Marc Savard's departure to Boston will be sorely missed. The addition of Steve Rucchin as a free agent from the Rangers complements Scott Mellany in the "gritty veteran looking to provide leadership to a young team" department, but you have to wonder how both will hold up. Furthermore, if your best defenseman is named Greg DeVries, you've got problems. In net, new signee Johan Hedberg is living his seventh or eighth life, and Kari Lehtonen is like that sign in the Wawa deli department displaying the number of days between accidents.
Even though the defending champs won't be as dominating this year, there are three teams who will take advantage of Atlanta's freewheeling ways. Even though the supposed hallmark of the new NHL is an emphasis on offense, you still need defense and goaltending to make the playoffs. The Thrashers are in danger of becoming the NHL's version of the Chicago Cubs. Prediction: 4th place, 35 wins
Carolina - The trouble with winning the Cup one year, is that a certain segment of fans and analysts immediately seize on the previous year's winners to repeat, always shaking heads in disbelief when it inevitably does not occur. With 30 teams, more parity, and 16 teams in the postseason with winning records, it is virtually impossible for one team to repeat its run to the Cup.
Still, the Hurricanes are a very talented team with the right balance of veteran experience (especially on the backline, where experience tends to shine through), exciting forwards who should all hit their peak at the same time, and a goaltender with a tremendous upside. Aside from losing Aaron Ward (Rangers), Mark Recchi (back to Pittsburgh) and Doug Weight (back to St. Louis) the lineup remains unchanged. There are a few cracks in the armor, though. One is the Cup hangover. Another is that there are two other talented teams in the division (Florida and Tampa Bay) out to prove last year's struggles were mere flukes. What could cause a problem is, how can Cam Ward possibly repeat last year's performance? He's been to the highest of the high so early in his career, how can he deal with the pressure of such early success without a sophomore or junior year slip? Ward now has to bear the burden of being a starting goaltender, since Martin Gerber left and John Grahame is simply not a viable starter.
The 'Canes won't repeat, and they won't put up a 50-plus win season this year, but they're one year older and one year wiser. They won't need to push the pedal to the metal to prove themselves. Prediction: 1st place.
Florida - Discounting the front office turmoil, the Panthers pulled off the double take moments of the summer by swapping Roberto Luongo for Todd Bertuzzi and Alex Auld, then bringing in Ed Belfour.
Looking at this lineup, it's hard to believe the 2005-2006 edition had trouble scoring for most of the year, ending up in fourth place. The addition of Bertuzzi is a huge step in the right direction - he should effectively cover for reluctant big man Chris Gratton's five-year, four-team zombie act. I have no reason to believe Olli Jokinen can't repeat his goal-scoring frenzy from a year ago, or that Gary Roberts, Joe Nieuwendyk and Martin Gelinas won't contribute the same brilliant mixture of veteran savvy which has kept them in the league this long. Florida's defense is a good mixture of the hulking and the smooth, exemplified by Steve Montador and Ruslan Salei. As it is for most teams, goaltending will be an issue. Alex Auld is a competent backup, but with the move to a more offensive-oriented Eastern Conference, the likelihood of turning in a stinker increases. Ed Belfour...yeeaaahh, Ed Belfour...he'll turn in 10 great games, 10 horrific ones, and the rest will be dispassionate. If ever there was a player stealing a paycheck, Belfour is the prime suspect.
A lot of upside for the team who plays on the edge of the Everglades. Who knows if it will all come together?
Prediction: 2nd place and a low playoff seed.
Tampa Bay - Over the last two seasons, the Lightning have seen the peak and the valley, all at Ludicrous Speed. They aren't the first team to win it all one year and drop out of sight the next, and they won't be the last.
2006-2007 is the moment of truth for this resurrected franchise. They can either take the lessons learned from the last two campaigns and grow from it, or they can collapse under the malaise and discontent that an abrasive coach like John Tortorella can breed after too long. I'm going on a limb to say the Lightning will not be anything close to the world-beaters they were in 2003-2004, or even the team who bowed out in the first round last year. They've lost a key forward in Fredrik Modin to Columbus, and saw John Grahame move to division rival Carolina. Nikita Alexeev and Vinnie Prospal are pale substitutes for Modin and the retired Dave Andreychuk, but all is not lost with Lecavalier, Richards and St. Louis prowling in the offensive zone. Defensively, Tampa has young if unproven talent in Doug Janik and Paul Ranger to back up Dan Boyle, Cory Sarich, Nolan Pratt and Filip Kuba. Signing Luke Richardson, limping along in his 19th season, was not wise. He would serve the team better by sitting in the press box most games and relaying his observations to the young defense. Prediction: 3rd place, fighting for the final playoff spot.
Washington - The horror show in the nation's capital that marked Washington Capitals hockey from 1974 to 1982 has returned full force.
Alex Ovechkin is the only reason anyone in Maryland, DC, or Northern Virginia should venture into the Verizon Center to watch a game. If I were in charge of the Caps, it would be a team regenerated by a huge funeral pyre. By a slim margin, Dainius Zubrus, Richard Zednik, Donald Brashear and Olaf Kolzig will survive the firy purge, but everyone else on the ice and in the front office shouldn't wear any flammables. The flames will be stoked by the current home, road, and third jerseys, and rise until they've consumed Ted Leonsis, who still treats this hockey team like a cute little afterthought from the center of his technological empire. There's no place to go but up, but who knows how long it will take for these Phoenix to rise from the ashes? I feel bad for Olie the Goalie, whose professional loyalty won't allow him to cut and run after years of abuse propping up a second-class team. He'd probably shave off half a goal from his average if they just pour the bronze casting right over him while in uniform, letting him guard the crease in petrified form.
There will be a lot of cheering in downtown DC this year - because Rangers, Islanders, Devils, and Flyers fans will buy a majority of tickets and make the trip, filling about half the Caps home games with passionate, interested customers. Prediction: 5th place. Will fight the Penguins and Islanders for dead last in the conference.
At their heart, the Thrashers are a team with an explosive offense that can have fans on the edge of their seats, always thin on defense, and porous for any number of reasons in net. This year is no different. Ilya Kovalchuk will threaten the 50-goal plateau, while Marian Hossa and Slava Kozlov will flit around the ice almost at will to put up their points. However, after Jon Sim, you can't expect a lot of production from the third or fourth lines. Marc Savard's departure to Boston will be sorely missed. The addition of Steve Rucchin as a free agent from the Rangers complements Scott Mellany in the "gritty veteran looking to provide leadership to a young team" department, but you have to wonder how both will hold up. Furthermore, if your best defenseman is named Greg DeVries, you've got problems. In net, new signee Johan Hedberg is living his seventh or eighth life, and Kari Lehtonen is like that sign in the Wawa deli department displaying the number of days between accidents.
Even though the defending champs won't be as dominating this year, there are three teams who will take advantage of Atlanta's freewheeling ways. Even though the supposed hallmark of the new NHL is an emphasis on offense, you still need defense and goaltending to make the playoffs. The Thrashers are in danger of becoming the NHL's version of the Chicago Cubs. Prediction: 4th place, 35 wins
Carolina - The trouble with winning the Cup one year, is that a certain segment of fans and analysts immediately seize on the previous year's winners to repeat, always shaking heads in disbelief when it inevitably does not occur. With 30 teams, more parity, and 16 teams in the postseason with winning records, it is virtually impossible for one team to repeat its run to the Cup.
Still, the Hurricanes are a very talented team with the right balance of veteran experience (especially on the backline, where experience tends to shine through), exciting forwards who should all hit their peak at the same time, and a goaltender with a tremendous upside. Aside from losing Aaron Ward (Rangers), Mark Recchi (back to Pittsburgh) and Doug Weight (back to St. Louis) the lineup remains unchanged. There are a few cracks in the armor, though. One is the Cup hangover. Another is that there are two other talented teams in the division (Florida and Tampa Bay) out to prove last year's struggles were mere flukes. What could cause a problem is, how can Cam Ward possibly repeat last year's performance? He's been to the highest of the high so early in his career, how can he deal with the pressure of such early success without a sophomore or junior year slip? Ward now has to bear the burden of being a starting goaltender, since Martin Gerber left and John Grahame is simply not a viable starter.
The 'Canes won't repeat, and they won't put up a 50-plus win season this year, but they're one year older and one year wiser. They won't need to push the pedal to the metal to prove themselves. Prediction: 1st place.
Florida - Discounting the front office turmoil, the Panthers pulled off the double take moments of the summer by swapping Roberto Luongo for Todd Bertuzzi and Alex Auld, then bringing in Ed Belfour.
Looking at this lineup, it's hard to believe the 2005-2006 edition had trouble scoring for most of the year, ending up in fourth place. The addition of Bertuzzi is a huge step in the right direction - he should effectively cover for reluctant big man Chris Gratton's five-year, four-team zombie act. I have no reason to believe Olli Jokinen can't repeat his goal-scoring frenzy from a year ago, or that Gary Roberts, Joe Nieuwendyk and Martin Gelinas won't contribute the same brilliant mixture of veteran savvy which has kept them in the league this long. Florida's defense is a good mixture of the hulking and the smooth, exemplified by Steve Montador and Ruslan Salei. As it is for most teams, goaltending will be an issue. Alex Auld is a competent backup, but with the move to a more offensive-oriented Eastern Conference, the likelihood of turning in a stinker increases. Ed Belfour...yeeaaahh, Ed Belfour...he'll turn in 10 great games, 10 horrific ones, and the rest will be dispassionate. If ever there was a player stealing a paycheck, Belfour is the prime suspect.
A lot of upside for the team who plays on the edge of the Everglades. Who knows if it will all come together?
Prediction: 2nd place and a low playoff seed.
Tampa Bay - Over the last two seasons, the Lightning have seen the peak and the valley, all at Ludicrous Speed. They aren't the first team to win it all one year and drop out of sight the next, and they won't be the last.
2006-2007 is the moment of truth for this resurrected franchise. They can either take the lessons learned from the last two campaigns and grow from it, or they can collapse under the malaise and discontent that an abrasive coach like John Tortorella can breed after too long. I'm going on a limb to say the Lightning will not be anything close to the world-beaters they were in 2003-2004, or even the team who bowed out in the first round last year. They've lost a key forward in Fredrik Modin to Columbus, and saw John Grahame move to division rival Carolina. Nikita Alexeev and Vinnie Prospal are pale substitutes for Modin and the retired Dave Andreychuk, but all is not lost with Lecavalier, Richards and St. Louis prowling in the offensive zone. Defensively, Tampa has young if unproven talent in Doug Janik and Paul Ranger to back up Dan Boyle, Cory Sarich, Nolan Pratt and Filip Kuba. Signing Luke Richardson, limping along in his 19th season, was not wise. He would serve the team better by sitting in the press box most games and relaying his observations to the young defense. Prediction: 3rd place, fighting for the final playoff spot.
Washington - The horror show in the nation's capital that marked Washington Capitals hockey from 1974 to 1982 has returned full force.
Alex Ovechkin is the only reason anyone in Maryland, DC, or Northern Virginia should venture into the Verizon Center to watch a game. If I were in charge of the Caps, it would be a team regenerated by a huge funeral pyre. By a slim margin, Dainius Zubrus, Richard Zednik, Donald Brashear and Olaf Kolzig will survive the firy purge, but everyone else on the ice and in the front office shouldn't wear any flammables. The flames will be stoked by the current home, road, and third jerseys, and rise until they've consumed Ted Leonsis, who still treats this hockey team like a cute little afterthought from the center of his technological empire. There's no place to go but up, but who knows how long it will take for these Phoenix to rise from the ashes? I feel bad for Olie the Goalie, whose professional loyalty won't allow him to cut and run after years of abuse propping up a second-class team. He'd probably shave off half a goal from his average if they just pour the bronze casting right over him while in uniform, letting him guard the crease in petrified form.
There will be a lot of cheering in downtown DC this year - because Rangers, Islanders, Devils, and Flyers fans will buy a majority of tickets and make the trip, filling about half the Caps home games with passionate, interested customers. Prediction: 5th place. Will fight the Penguins and Islanders for dead last in the conference.
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Central Standards
Chicago - Let's start by saying you won't find any stupid jokes about how the only real hockey team in Chicago are the Wolves. It's just a fact of life, like death and taxes, that as long as the Wirtz family owns the team, the players and the fans will be shortchanged living in such a great city with such a great (former) hockey tradition.
That said, the Blackhawks did manage to upgrade their offense, netting Martin Havlat and Bryan Smolinski in that three way deal with Ottawa and San Jose. Havlat's automatically the best scoring threat on the team, and Smolinski the best center. Even with the steadily improving Rene Bourque, gritty winger Martin Lapointe, and Michal Handzus adding some depth, there's not enough there beyond two lines to compete with the rest of the division. Defensively, there's no way after years of playing 30-plus minutes a game in Vancouver and Long Island that Adrian Aucoin can keep up the pace. Jassen Cullimore and Jim Vandermeer will make opposing forwards look over their shoulder in the offensive zone, but there's no depth and no toughness before you get to the men in the crease. Speaking of which, there's automatically a problem when the three goalies a team carries have been starters at one time in their respective careers. Either Brian Boucher or Patrick Lalime will be disgruntled and asking for a trade sometime before the All-Star break, and after last season, Nikolai Khabibulin probably thought he was back in Winnipeg facing so much rubber.
Sad to say, but this will be yet another lost year in a lost era for a once proud franchise. Prediction: Last place, though Havlat's skill and the goaltending carousel may make a few games interesting.
Columbus - Let's get this straight. Rick Nash misses a good chunk at the start of the season, Sergei Fedorov arrives and plays like he's on Xanax, and the Jackets manage to post their best season since arriving in the league in 2000? That won't happen again, now that Chicago, St Louis and Nashville have upgraded their teams. Nash is the sniper, Fedorov is the passer, while David Vyborny, Nikolai Zherdev and Fredrik Modin will add more scoring punch - and that's all, folks. Anson Carter will be a valuable addition for depth on the third line, but it's unrealistic to expect a 33-goal year like he had in Vancouver. Aside from Adam Foote and Bryan Berard, this team is a sieve on the backline, and without even Marc Denis to throw in five or six excellent games in net, the Jackets will once again be near the bottom of the league in goals against. Prediction: 4th place. Good thing the Blackhawks are there in the basement to cushion a fall.
Detroit - Since the creation of the new Central as part of the six-division alignment starting in 1998-99, the Red Wings have finished first every year except for 1999-2000, when the Blues won the Central and the Presidents' Trophy as the best team in the NHL. 2006-2007 will be the second year.
Hockeytown has lost so much in the offseason with the retirement of Stevie Franchise, and the departure ofd Brendan Shanahan to the Rangers. It's not just the goals, assists and points - the heart and soul of three Stanley Cup winners vanished in a summer of discontent. A 58-win team that utterly failed in the postseason is now a battered husk of itself. Sure, everyone else will be along for the ride this year, led by 44-year-old captain Chris Chelios. Dominik Hasek is even taking his place on the goalie-go-round with the perennially maligned Chris Osgood as his back-up. Still, this team reminds me of those early 80's Flyers - too old and too young at the same time. They'll put together a decent regular season, then hit a wall when fresher legs and deeper rosters confront them in the playoffs.
Second-year man Mike Babcock will have to break out of autopilot this time around, and actually have to coach this Red Wing team. He'll have his hands full trying to manage the babes and massage the old folks.
Prediction: 2nd place. Detroit is on an elevator operating only with a "down" button.
Nashville - Congrats, you capital of that hockey hotbed of Tennessee. This is your time. Carpe diem.
You've got the smooth professionalism of Paul Kariya. The manic speed of Steve Sullivan. The swift hands of Jason Arnott. The shifty and crafty J.P. Dumont. The durable goaltending combo of Tomas Vokoun and Chris Mason. The weakening of the Red Wings' gerontological Empire. Two teams in your division you can easily rip off 14 wins against. There are no more excuses. Prediction: First place.
St. Louis - All is smiles and sunshine in the city by the Mighty Mississip'. New ownership, new lease on life, new commitment to exciting the crowds and putting a competitive product on the ice. Wait...didn't we hear this out of Pittsburgh last year?
This team left a trail of paper from all the signed and discarded contracts that would make Republicans envious. Bill Guerin, Radek Dvorak, Doug Weight, Martin Rucinsky, Jay McKee, Dan Hinote, and Manny Legace have the task of turning a bunch of sour notes into sweet, sweet music. All Mike Kitchen has to do is keep Keith Tkachuk away from the pastry aisles, and the Blues are all set, right? Wrong. While signing a bunch of name players to infuse your shiny new plaything with an element that sells tickets is a brilliant marketing strategy, it does not mean automatic winning chemistry when the puck drops. See "Penguins, Pittsburgh" for reference. The Blues are yet another team that is too old and too young, and that spells a maddening inconsistency that may turn St. Louis into a seller come the trading deadline. Are the Blues a vastly improved team over the one that finished 14th in the West? Absolutely. However, I don't buy into the belief that signing players in a blizzard of ink guarantees anything.
Things are looking up in the Arch City, but there's still a long way to go. Prediction: 3rd place, a playoff spot just out of reach.
That said, the Blackhawks did manage to upgrade their offense, netting Martin Havlat and Bryan Smolinski in that three way deal with Ottawa and San Jose. Havlat's automatically the best scoring threat on the team, and Smolinski the best center. Even with the steadily improving Rene Bourque, gritty winger Martin Lapointe, and Michal Handzus adding some depth, there's not enough there beyond two lines to compete with the rest of the division. Defensively, there's no way after years of playing 30-plus minutes a game in Vancouver and Long Island that Adrian Aucoin can keep up the pace. Jassen Cullimore and Jim Vandermeer will make opposing forwards look over their shoulder in the offensive zone, but there's no depth and no toughness before you get to the men in the crease. Speaking of which, there's automatically a problem when the three goalies a team carries have been starters at one time in their respective careers. Either Brian Boucher or Patrick Lalime will be disgruntled and asking for a trade sometime before the All-Star break, and after last season, Nikolai Khabibulin probably thought he was back in Winnipeg facing so much rubber.
Sad to say, but this will be yet another lost year in a lost era for a once proud franchise. Prediction: Last place, though Havlat's skill and the goaltending carousel may make a few games interesting.
Columbus - Let's get this straight. Rick Nash misses a good chunk at the start of the season, Sergei Fedorov arrives and plays like he's on Xanax, and the Jackets manage to post their best season since arriving in the league in 2000? That won't happen again, now that Chicago, St Louis and Nashville have upgraded their teams. Nash is the sniper, Fedorov is the passer, while David Vyborny, Nikolai Zherdev and Fredrik Modin will add more scoring punch - and that's all, folks. Anson Carter will be a valuable addition for depth on the third line, but it's unrealistic to expect a 33-goal year like he had in Vancouver. Aside from Adam Foote and Bryan Berard, this team is a sieve on the backline, and without even Marc Denis to throw in five or six excellent games in net, the Jackets will once again be near the bottom of the league in goals against. Prediction: 4th place. Good thing the Blackhawks are there in the basement to cushion a fall.
Detroit - Since the creation of the new Central as part of the six-division alignment starting in 1998-99, the Red Wings have finished first every year except for 1999-2000, when the Blues won the Central and the Presidents' Trophy as the best team in the NHL. 2006-2007 will be the second year.
Hockeytown has lost so much in the offseason with the retirement of Stevie Franchise, and the departure ofd Brendan Shanahan to the Rangers. It's not just the goals, assists and points - the heart and soul of three Stanley Cup winners vanished in a summer of discontent. A 58-win team that utterly failed in the postseason is now a battered husk of itself. Sure, everyone else will be along for the ride this year, led by 44-year-old captain Chris Chelios. Dominik Hasek is even taking his place on the goalie-go-round with the perennially maligned Chris Osgood as his back-up. Still, this team reminds me of those early 80's Flyers - too old and too young at the same time. They'll put together a decent regular season, then hit a wall when fresher legs and deeper rosters confront them in the playoffs.
Second-year man Mike Babcock will have to break out of autopilot this time around, and actually have to coach this Red Wing team. He'll have his hands full trying to manage the babes and massage the old folks.
Prediction: 2nd place. Detroit is on an elevator operating only with a "down" button.
Nashville - Congrats, you capital of that hockey hotbed of Tennessee. This is your time. Carpe diem.
You've got the smooth professionalism of Paul Kariya. The manic speed of Steve Sullivan. The swift hands of Jason Arnott. The shifty and crafty J.P. Dumont. The durable goaltending combo of Tomas Vokoun and Chris Mason. The weakening of the Red Wings' gerontological Empire. Two teams in your division you can easily rip off 14 wins against. There are no more excuses. Prediction: First place.
St. Louis - All is smiles and sunshine in the city by the Mighty Mississip'. New ownership, new lease on life, new commitment to exciting the crowds and putting a competitive product on the ice. Wait...didn't we hear this out of Pittsburgh last year?
This team left a trail of paper from all the signed and discarded contracts that would make Republicans envious. Bill Guerin, Radek Dvorak, Doug Weight, Martin Rucinsky, Jay McKee, Dan Hinote, and Manny Legace have the task of turning a bunch of sour notes into sweet, sweet music. All Mike Kitchen has to do is keep Keith Tkachuk away from the pastry aisles, and the Blues are all set, right? Wrong. While signing a bunch of name players to infuse your shiny new plaything with an element that sells tickets is a brilliant marketing strategy, it does not mean automatic winning chemistry when the puck drops. See "Penguins, Pittsburgh" for reference. The Blues are yet another team that is too old and too young, and that spells a maddening inconsistency that may turn St. Louis into a seller come the trading deadline. Are the Blues a vastly improved team over the one that finished 14th in the West? Absolutely. However, I don't buy into the belief that signing players in a blizzard of ink guarantees anything.
Things are looking up in the Arch City, but there's still a long way to go. Prediction: 3rd place, a playoff spot just out of reach.
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
Northwest Passages
Calgary - The Flames have done much to improve their situation, the smartest move of all being the removal of Darryl Sutter from behind the bench. Seriously, Calgary was one of the teams that just refused to buy into the New NHL, and paid for it dearly with a first round flame-out against Anaheim.
There must be something in the cool, crisp, clean Calgary water when it comes to dealing with the Avalanche. First, they steal Chris Drury. Now, they've fleeced the 'Lanche by taking Alex Tanguay who should now be hitting his prime, for a middling defenseman in Jordan Leopold. Along with Tony Amonte, Kristian Huselius, Chuck Kobasew, and Jarome Iginla, the top two lines are forces to be reckoned with. On defense, Dion Phaneuf, a Calder Trophy candidate, shouldn't suffer a sophomore slump, even though his numbers may dip a bit. He'll be the brightest star on a defense that is solid but unspectacular. In net, Miikka Kiprusoff and Jamie McLennan will steal a couple games when the offense stalls.
With a revamped frontline, and new coaching philosophy from Jim Playfair, there should be no excuses for why the Flames can't score in excess of 240 goals this year, even in an ultra-competitive division. It remains to be seen just how much influence Sutter wields from the front office, and if he suggests more backchecking and physical presence, the Flames will be stuck in the same old rut. Prediction: 2nd place.
Colorado - Finally, fans in the Denver Metro area will get a dose of what every other hockey market has seen - a team in the early stages of a rebuilding process. ESPN, Yahoo, and the Denver Post are all treating the Avalanche's youth movement like the fall of the Roman Empire. It's hard to remember that, even before the arrival of Patrick Roy, the Nordiques moved to Colorado in 1995 with a team ready-made for stardom, and maintained a level of excellence far longer than most teams in this hyper-expansion era.
Joe Sakic is the lone remaining player from both Cup seasons, and he'll have his toughest assignment ever, being the face of the franchise, and the only dependable veteran leader and scorer. Steve Konowalchuk would have filled a leadership void, but with his unexpected retirement, it is a huge blow to the team's character. The rest are question marks: Can Andrew Brunette come close to his career year? Which Milan Hejduk will show up this season? Are Marek Svatos, Wojtek Wolski, and Paul Stastny the equivalents to the young Sakic, Sundin, and Nolan? The backline is a mixed bag at best, and significantly weaker without the presence of Rob Blake. John-Michael Liles will have a steep learning curve without his veteran mentor, and you've got to figure some late-season fatigue with the ageless Ken Klee and unreliable Patrice Brisebois. Jose Theodore and Peter Budaj are wild cards - they'll most likely cost the Avs as many games as they'll steal.
This is the first year of what could be a long climb back to prominence. Colorado won't disappear like a feather in the wind, but they aren't nearly as dangerous as even last season. Prediction: 3rd place, 38-40 wins.
Edmonton - Your 15 minutes of fame are up. I know there is a contingent of fans, analysts and broadcasters who are wishing for a return to the glory days in the wake of Edmonton's surprise run to Game 7 of the Finals, but the window of opportunity dried up when that clock hit all zeros in the RBC Center in June.
Even if Chris Pronger's wife had liked the frigid tundra of northern Alberta to let her husband stay, teams like the Oilers who make runs one year become also-rans the next. With no Pronger, no Samsonov, no Radek Dvorak, who's going to provide the speed and spark? Hopefully, Joffrey Lupul who came in the Pronger deal. Other than that, it's basically the same team from last year. The Oilers should be an exciting regular season team, playing 41 games on that beautifully fast ice surface, but they'll take a huge step backwards in the postseason. Prediction: 4th place
Minnesota - The sexy pick on everyone's list to challenge the rest of the Northwest for the division title. They have Marian Gaborik, Brian Rolston, and new acquisitions Pavol Demitra and Mark Parrish, plus two Flyer castoffs in Branko Radivojevic and Kim Johnsson.
But really, that's all. Martin Skoula and Keith Carney on defense? Manny Fernandez has no proven back-up in the crease, either.
I guess Jacques Lemaire has a plan to try to outscore the opposition instead of lulling them into a trap-induced coma. Sometimes I wonder if he even remembers the years he spent as one of the era-defining Flying Frenchmen in Montreal. This team isn't going anywhere unless Lemaire removes the shackles for good...This is a recording... This message will self-destruct in 8 seconds...
Prediction: 5th place. I'd bet everything I own that Minnesota won't score more than 220 goals and won't give up more than 210.
Vancouver - While the Flames pulled off the best move of the off-season within the division, the Canucks pulled off the gutsiest. Trading their behemoth power forward Todd Bertuzzi to Florida in a deal that brought them their best goaltender since Kirk McLean, in Roberto Luongo. Bertuzzi's psychological wounds will heal in the South Beach sun, and Luongo will play well even if he's not facing 45 shots a night.
The biggest losses for Vancouver occurred on defense, where Brent Sopel left for Los Angeles and Ed Jovanovski fled for Phoenix. Still, Sami Salo and Mattias Ohlund are more than prepared to carry the load, along with Willie Mitchell who is a suitable Jovo substitute. Up front, the subtraction of Bertuzzi means less room for Markus Naslund and friends to roam around the net, however, the forwards are skilled enough to create room for themselves with their skill (Naslund, Morrison, Jan Bulis) and chemistry (Sedin twins). The x-factor in how the Canucks fare will be this new lawsuit brought against Trevor Linden and the player's union rep Ted Saskin.
As if Vancouver didn't already have enough on their plate with the lingering Bertuzzi-Moore situation, and breaking in a new head coach, one of the city's most beloved players will be embroiled in this lawsuit drama as long as it lasts. All the more reason to make them my sleeper pick. Prediction: First place, edging out Calgary.
There must be something in the cool, crisp, clean Calgary water when it comes to dealing with the Avalanche. First, they steal Chris Drury. Now, they've fleeced the 'Lanche by taking Alex Tanguay who should now be hitting his prime, for a middling defenseman in Jordan Leopold. Along with Tony Amonte, Kristian Huselius, Chuck Kobasew, and Jarome Iginla, the top two lines are forces to be reckoned with. On defense, Dion Phaneuf, a Calder Trophy candidate, shouldn't suffer a sophomore slump, even though his numbers may dip a bit. He'll be the brightest star on a defense that is solid but unspectacular. In net, Miikka Kiprusoff and Jamie McLennan will steal a couple games when the offense stalls.
With a revamped frontline, and new coaching philosophy from Jim Playfair, there should be no excuses for why the Flames can't score in excess of 240 goals this year, even in an ultra-competitive division. It remains to be seen just how much influence Sutter wields from the front office, and if he suggests more backchecking and physical presence, the Flames will be stuck in the same old rut. Prediction: 2nd place.
Colorado - Finally, fans in the Denver Metro area will get a dose of what every other hockey market has seen - a team in the early stages of a rebuilding process. ESPN, Yahoo, and the Denver Post are all treating the Avalanche's youth movement like the fall of the Roman Empire. It's hard to remember that, even before the arrival of Patrick Roy, the Nordiques moved to Colorado in 1995 with a team ready-made for stardom, and maintained a level of excellence far longer than most teams in this hyper-expansion era.
Joe Sakic is the lone remaining player from both Cup seasons, and he'll have his toughest assignment ever, being the face of the franchise, and the only dependable veteran leader and scorer. Steve Konowalchuk would have filled a leadership void, but with his unexpected retirement, it is a huge blow to the team's character. The rest are question marks: Can Andrew Brunette come close to his career year? Which Milan Hejduk will show up this season? Are Marek Svatos, Wojtek Wolski, and Paul Stastny the equivalents to the young Sakic, Sundin, and Nolan? The backline is a mixed bag at best, and significantly weaker without the presence of Rob Blake. John-Michael Liles will have a steep learning curve without his veteran mentor, and you've got to figure some late-season fatigue with the ageless Ken Klee and unreliable Patrice Brisebois. Jose Theodore and Peter Budaj are wild cards - they'll most likely cost the Avs as many games as they'll steal.
This is the first year of what could be a long climb back to prominence. Colorado won't disappear like a feather in the wind, but they aren't nearly as dangerous as even last season. Prediction: 3rd place, 38-40 wins.
Edmonton - Your 15 minutes of fame are up. I know there is a contingent of fans, analysts and broadcasters who are wishing for a return to the glory days in the wake of Edmonton's surprise run to Game 7 of the Finals, but the window of opportunity dried up when that clock hit all zeros in the RBC Center in June.
Even if Chris Pronger's wife had liked the frigid tundra of northern Alberta to let her husband stay, teams like the Oilers who make runs one year become also-rans the next. With no Pronger, no Samsonov, no Radek Dvorak, who's going to provide the speed and spark? Hopefully, Joffrey Lupul who came in the Pronger deal. Other than that, it's basically the same team from last year. The Oilers should be an exciting regular season team, playing 41 games on that beautifully fast ice surface, but they'll take a huge step backwards in the postseason. Prediction: 4th place
Minnesota - The sexy pick on everyone's list to challenge the rest of the Northwest for the division title. They have Marian Gaborik, Brian Rolston, and new acquisitions Pavol Demitra and Mark Parrish, plus two Flyer castoffs in Branko Radivojevic and Kim Johnsson.
But really, that's all. Martin Skoula and Keith Carney on defense? Manny Fernandez has no proven back-up in the crease, either.
I guess Jacques Lemaire has a plan to try to outscore the opposition instead of lulling them into a trap-induced coma. Sometimes I wonder if he even remembers the years he spent as one of the era-defining Flying Frenchmen in Montreal. This team isn't going anywhere unless Lemaire removes the shackles for good...This is a recording... This message will self-destruct in 8 seconds...
Prediction: 5th place. I'd bet everything I own that Minnesota won't score more than 220 goals and won't give up more than 210.
Vancouver - While the Flames pulled off the best move of the off-season within the division, the Canucks pulled off the gutsiest. Trading their behemoth power forward Todd Bertuzzi to Florida in a deal that brought them their best goaltender since Kirk McLean, in Roberto Luongo. Bertuzzi's psychological wounds will heal in the South Beach sun, and Luongo will play well even if he's not facing 45 shots a night.
The biggest losses for Vancouver occurred on defense, where Brent Sopel left for Los Angeles and Ed Jovanovski fled for Phoenix. Still, Sami Salo and Mattias Ohlund are more than prepared to carry the load, along with Willie Mitchell who is a suitable Jovo substitute. Up front, the subtraction of Bertuzzi means less room for Markus Naslund and friends to roam around the net, however, the forwards are skilled enough to create room for themselves with their skill (Naslund, Morrison, Jan Bulis) and chemistry (Sedin twins). The x-factor in how the Canucks fare will be this new lawsuit brought against Trevor Linden and the player's union rep Ted Saskin.
As if Vancouver didn't already have enough on their plate with the lingering Bertuzzi-Moore situation, and breaking in a new head coach, one of the city's most beloved players will be embroiled in this lawsuit drama as long as it lasts. All the more reason to make them my sleeper pick. Prediction: First place, edging out Calgary.
Monday, October 02, 2006
Pacific Specifics
Round One of the 2006-2007 Division Predictions underway...
Pacific Division
Anaheim - Coming off yet another unexpected post-season run that was only ended by the equally feel-good story of the Edmonton Oilers' Finals appearance, there are high expectations for this club. Adding mega-defenseman Chris Pronger in an offseason trade and ditching the plum and green color scheme and "angry duck" logo only heightens them.
However, I'm not going to anoint them ready to take their place among the Dallases and San Joses for the division title. Teemu Selanne, while a valuable veteran forward, and very happy to be back in SoCal, won't have another 40 goal season. The Pronger trade cost them a great young forward in Joffrey Lupul, and Ilya Bryzgalov will most likely follow the path of Jean-Sebastien Giguere into mediocrity then obscurity. That's not a rip, but in a 30-team league, one team that makes a surprise run one year goes back to the middle of the pack in the next.
Aside from the Niedermayers, Pronger, Todd Marchant and Selanne, the roster is stocked with young talent who will have to prove their worth in-season. Not a recipe for disaster, but nothing to hang your hat on, either. Prediction: Third place, slightly above .500, fighting for a playoff berth.
Dallas - Last season's shootout darlings, the Stars used that travesty of a game-decider to wring 53 wins and 112 points out of the 05-06 season. However, when faced with a real team with real veteran presence and youthful energy in the first round of the playoffs, the Stars wilted to the Avs in five.
This is a team in more flux than at any time since Ken Hitchcock took the reins from Bob Gainey in 1995. They've subtracted the aging Bill Guerin, and added the circus that is Matthew Barnaby, the sullen Patrik Stefan, the solid if unspectacular Jeff Halpern, and the China Doll that is Eric Lindros - and over the weekend jettisoned Janne Niinimaa to Montreal for the young but struggling shooter, Mike Ribeiro. Let's not forget the passing of the "C" to Brenden Morrow, demoting long-time "face of the franchise" Mike Modano. If Modano's reaction to the move is anything like his tantrum after Team USA's ouster in Turin, the Stars are in for a long six months.
The Stars will remain a solid club with solid veteran talent able to teach the young kids how to be successful. Now, if someone could tell Jussi Jokinen that he maybe shouldn't save his energy and best moves for the shootouts, that would be great. Prediction(s): First place, but no more than 44 wins. Also, I'm setting the over-under on the number of games Lindros dresses for at 55.5.
Los Angeles - If ever there was a team facing unrealistic expectations because their foundation was ripped to its very core, it would be the Kings.
Marc Crawford, while a great coach with an established reputation for taking young teams (Quebec/Colorado and Vancouver) and rebuilding, is not the magic immediate solution to the Kings' woes of the past three seasons. Gone are Luc Robitaille, Jeremy Roenick, and Pavol Demitra. Coming in are Rob Blake for a last gasp, Brent Sopel, Scott Thornton and Brian Willsie. Throw in that mysterious trade that nets them prize defensive prospect Jack Johnson and veteran throw-in Oleg Tverdovsky for Eric Belanger and Tim Gleason, and the Crown Royals will be shored up on defense while the young offense takes time to jell.
Yet another team with so much youth up front. You have to have a few proven snipers up front to provide some balance, and the Kings don't have it with the departures of the three wizened vets. Trial by fire is a funny thing for unknown talent, so I see the Kings as a team hanging in until the end on the back of experienced defense. Goaltending is mediocre at best. They probably won't score much early on when chemistry is an issue, and late in the year as other teams feast on them in the playoff hunt. It may be two years before we can say the Kings have officially arrived. Prediction: Last place, 28-32 wins. With Sean Avery still around, they'll be the most interesting last-place team in the NHL.
Phoenix - This team is like a game of 20 Questions. Can Phoenix break the ceiling to the division title created for so many years by the Stars and Sharks? Will the Coyotes ever shake off the bad karma that comes from being the descendent of the Winnipeg Jets NHL franchise? Will they play a game in the new arena where it's so hot that a fog envelops the ice on a 100 degree Arizona day? How many chances will lifetime friends and business partners Wayne Gretzky and Mike Barnett get before the jig is up?
They've got as solid a combo in net with Curtis Joseph and the newly-signed Mike Morrison as anyone in the Western Conference. They have braun with Ed Jovanovski and Mike Comrie, toughness with Georges Laraque and Shane Doan, and skill with Nagy, Saprykin, Reinprecht and this year's Methuselah, Jeremy Roenick. Still, something always seems to prevent the 'Yotes from reaching their potential. This year, that something may be "Will Owen Nolan be of any value after not playing a single minute for two and a half years?"
The Great One seems to be Competent Enough behind the bench, but he's gotta come up with some different looks and adjustments to get the most from his team. I suggest bringing in Mark Messier as an assistant coach in charge of "providing a foot in the rear of any player who needs it at any time." Prediction: 4th place, edged out by Anaheim.
San Jose - This season was the Sharks' time to seize the moment, and take advantage of a weaker Dallas Stars club. They have Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo for a full season, and while they won't be putting up gaudy numbers like 125 points or 56 goals, even 85 percent of those totals this year will make a difference.
You have to wonder about an acquisition like the one over the weekend for Vladimir Malakhov. He was once marked for deletion by the Rangers, then a valuable add for the Flyers, then cut by the Devils for "subpar play" last year. If that pattern holds, he'll be a solid acquisition. Also, adding Curtis Brown and Mike Grier for grit and depth are at best neutral moves. This team has two too many goaltenders, too (four in all), and there has to be something worked out between the former darling Nabokov and the new-jack hero Toskala for the number one job. Aside from the Terrible Twosome on the top line, Patrick Marleau will have to pick up more offensive slack now that the surprising Nils Ekman has departed.
The Sharks should be setting the world on fire, ready to chomp down on the Stars and an unspectacular division. Instead, they made lateral moves to add depth but not punch. They'll be in the middle of the playoff pack once again. Prediction: Second place, 40-42 wins.
Pacific Division
Anaheim - Coming off yet another unexpected post-season run that was only ended by the equally feel-good story of the Edmonton Oilers' Finals appearance, there are high expectations for this club. Adding mega-defenseman Chris Pronger in an offseason trade and ditching the plum and green color scheme and "angry duck" logo only heightens them.
However, I'm not going to anoint them ready to take their place among the Dallases and San Joses for the division title. Teemu Selanne, while a valuable veteran forward, and very happy to be back in SoCal, won't have another 40 goal season. The Pronger trade cost them a great young forward in Joffrey Lupul, and Ilya Bryzgalov will most likely follow the path of Jean-Sebastien Giguere into mediocrity then obscurity. That's not a rip, but in a 30-team league, one team that makes a surprise run one year goes back to the middle of the pack in the next.
Aside from the Niedermayers, Pronger, Todd Marchant and Selanne, the roster is stocked with young talent who will have to prove their worth in-season. Not a recipe for disaster, but nothing to hang your hat on, either. Prediction: Third place, slightly above .500, fighting for a playoff berth.
Dallas - Last season's shootout darlings, the Stars used that travesty of a game-decider to wring 53 wins and 112 points out of the 05-06 season. However, when faced with a real team with real veteran presence and youthful energy in the first round of the playoffs, the Stars wilted to the Avs in five.
This is a team in more flux than at any time since Ken Hitchcock took the reins from Bob Gainey in 1995. They've subtracted the aging Bill Guerin, and added the circus that is Matthew Barnaby, the sullen Patrik Stefan, the solid if unspectacular Jeff Halpern, and the China Doll that is Eric Lindros - and over the weekend jettisoned Janne Niinimaa to Montreal for the young but struggling shooter, Mike Ribeiro. Let's not forget the passing of the "C" to Brenden Morrow, demoting long-time "face of the franchise" Mike Modano. If Modano's reaction to the move is anything like his tantrum after Team USA's ouster in Turin, the Stars are in for a long six months.
The Stars will remain a solid club with solid veteran talent able to teach the young kids how to be successful. Now, if someone could tell Jussi Jokinen that he maybe shouldn't save his energy and best moves for the shootouts, that would be great. Prediction(s): First place, but no more than 44 wins. Also, I'm setting the over-under on the number of games Lindros dresses for at 55.5.
Los Angeles - If ever there was a team facing unrealistic expectations because their foundation was ripped to its very core, it would be the Kings.
Marc Crawford, while a great coach with an established reputation for taking young teams (Quebec/Colorado and Vancouver) and rebuilding, is not the magic immediate solution to the Kings' woes of the past three seasons. Gone are Luc Robitaille, Jeremy Roenick, and Pavol Demitra. Coming in are Rob Blake for a last gasp, Brent Sopel, Scott Thornton and Brian Willsie. Throw in that mysterious trade that nets them prize defensive prospect Jack Johnson and veteran throw-in Oleg Tverdovsky for Eric Belanger and Tim Gleason, and the Crown Royals will be shored up on defense while the young offense takes time to jell.
Yet another team with so much youth up front. You have to have a few proven snipers up front to provide some balance, and the Kings don't have it with the departures of the three wizened vets. Trial by fire is a funny thing for unknown talent, so I see the Kings as a team hanging in until the end on the back of experienced defense. Goaltending is mediocre at best. They probably won't score much early on when chemistry is an issue, and late in the year as other teams feast on them in the playoff hunt. It may be two years before we can say the Kings have officially arrived. Prediction: Last place, 28-32 wins. With Sean Avery still around, they'll be the most interesting last-place team in the NHL.
Phoenix - This team is like a game of 20 Questions. Can Phoenix break the ceiling to the division title created for so many years by the Stars and Sharks? Will the Coyotes ever shake off the bad karma that comes from being the descendent of the Winnipeg Jets NHL franchise? Will they play a game in the new arena where it's so hot that a fog envelops the ice on a 100 degree Arizona day? How many chances will lifetime friends and business partners Wayne Gretzky and Mike Barnett get before the jig is up?
They've got as solid a combo in net with Curtis Joseph and the newly-signed Mike Morrison as anyone in the Western Conference. They have braun with Ed Jovanovski and Mike Comrie, toughness with Georges Laraque and Shane Doan, and skill with Nagy, Saprykin, Reinprecht and this year's Methuselah, Jeremy Roenick. Still, something always seems to prevent the 'Yotes from reaching their potential. This year, that something may be "Will Owen Nolan be of any value after not playing a single minute for two and a half years?"
The Great One seems to be Competent Enough behind the bench, but he's gotta come up with some different looks and adjustments to get the most from his team. I suggest bringing in Mark Messier as an assistant coach in charge of "providing a foot in the rear of any player who needs it at any time." Prediction: 4th place, edged out by Anaheim.
San Jose - This season was the Sharks' time to seize the moment, and take advantage of a weaker Dallas Stars club. They have Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo for a full season, and while they won't be putting up gaudy numbers like 125 points or 56 goals, even 85 percent of those totals this year will make a difference.
You have to wonder about an acquisition like the one over the weekend for Vladimir Malakhov. He was once marked for deletion by the Rangers, then a valuable add for the Flyers, then cut by the Devils for "subpar play" last year. If that pattern holds, he'll be a solid acquisition. Also, adding Curtis Brown and Mike Grier for grit and depth are at best neutral moves. This team has two too many goaltenders, too (four in all), and there has to be something worked out between the former darling Nabokov and the new-jack hero Toskala for the number one job. Aside from the Terrible Twosome on the top line, Patrick Marleau will have to pick up more offensive slack now that the surprising Nils Ekman has departed.
The Sharks should be setting the world on fire, ready to chomp down on the Stars and an unspectacular division. Instead, they made lateral moves to add depth but not punch. They'll be in the middle of the playoff pack once again. Prediction: Second place, 40-42 wins.
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